It may be very practical, since the older folks are the ones claiming a little more affiliation. One of the most alluring benefits of membership in my synagogue, where everyone except our Rabbi has Medicare benefits, is a perk introduced a generation or two ago. Every member has entitlement to a burial plot in the congregational cemetery. As our membership swooned from 350 to 105 families in my time there, most of the departures were young adults who defected or disaffiliated, and older members who claimed their piece of eternity. Even those who retired to Florida maintain a nominal membership to keep that benefit, which continues into widowhood irrespective of membership if the spouse is already buried there.
Perhaps the older participants in the GSS and in the CES have had to bury a mate or had to consider their own final plans as chronic life-shortening conditions appear. The Silent Generation has Veterans who get free burial. We boomers have much less of that entitlement. The church or synagogue offers something very valuable to them which commercial sources find hard to duplicate. No additional attendance required.
That was my thought as well: some contingent turning toward religion as they approach the end of life. That turn could be more about belief / belonging--adopting religious beliefs and self-identifying as religious--without a change in religious attendance.
One idea might be to look to see if the trend shows up by income or education group for boomers. Could it perhaps be earlier deaths among those who are less well off, who also are less religious?
As a Canadian who gets fed a lot of American media (especially on socials), it seems to me that there's been a bit of a resurgence of the religious left. I see influencers, pastors, and politicians responding to Trump by being more vocal about the Bible and Jesus being much more concerned about social justice than Christian Nationalists are. I'm sure some of that is just the algorithms echoing my own convictions back at me, but I don't think it's just that. So, my gut response when I saw the graph showing a big decline among Democrats was that religious identity is becoming important on the left again, in a way that was more common on the right in recent years. The fact that there's no comparable trend in the GSS gives me pause. But, if it were true, it might explain the discrepancy between the affiliation and attendance questions, since the thing that has social currency right now is the public identity, more than the religious behaviour.
Mortality perhaps is coming in to play more and more for boomers. I'm one of the earliest (1946) and we're dying off more rapidly now. A quick look on-line suggests that religion has a positive association with longevity for boomers, which translates into a lower percentage nones. As well, the "nothing in particular" members are not "real" nonbelievers and might return to the fold? I guess membership in political groups could also change, perhaps especially given recent dynamics? And the width of the boomer category probably means older ones like me differ from younger ones. If you're not there yet, 80 years of age is definitely different than 60!
My instinct would be to check differential mortality rates and see what sort of impact they would have on the data. While I don’t think it would explain it all - it would give the data a nudge in the observed direction.
I don't see it mentioned here, but what are the nones turning to? The baseline assumption seems to be Christianity of some sort since you are checking it against church attendance, but that is not necessarily the case. Or, at least I would want evidence that that is what's happening.
Another factor might be that this is some kind of political religion where self-ID is the only meaningful variable. But I do get that you are more using attendance as a calibration than an actual measure of change.
Ryan put out a post last year which showed a 3 percentage point increase in the "other faith" category between the last two GSS surveys. But I'm not sure if I trust a swing like that over such a short time period (unless if it is explainable by immigration patterns) and likely some of the "other faith" folks are just misclassified Christians.
Could it be a simple return to previous generations were it’s not necessarily less acceptable to be unaffiliated but it’s more socially desirable to refer to oneself as a religious believer (rather an even spiritual) of some kind?
Came here to say the same thing as everyone else. If you look at the same demographic of people as they age, does their religiosity change over time - especially as they approach end of life?
Hi Ryan, I'm going to throw out an idea why boomers have less "nones" as the years go by. And it's got nothing to do with politics, and everything to do with technology. A couple of years ago I started paying attention to John Burke's (Christ follower) research of Near Death Experience testimonies. (I'm 78). I think it's natural for old people to want to "know" if there life after death? And the technology makes these stories available to anyone who wants to take the time to listen. People are changing their minds. Authentic (NOT AI generated) are convincing.
YES there is Jesus. He IS love. 20% of the population has this continuing to exist experience, no NOT everyone meets Jesus and many from other religious teachings do. And . . there IS a hell.
This is consistent with the thesis in Sacred and Secular, by Norris & Englehart (2012), where they found that increased religiosity corresponds to financial and physical insecurity. This is the impact of the OBBB and the war on Iran. It's a variant of the Foxhole thesis and the Marxist theory of religion. That would also explain the increase among younger people as their prospects dim. Those young adults experienced the impact of the Great Recession during their formative years as well, a sort of double-whammy.
"Guys, this is why this job is hard!" But you do such a great job! I and many others appreciate your efforts to untie the knots of data.
Great post. In regards to the "spiritual reversal" perhaps we are seeing the Spirit at work.
It may be very practical, since the older folks are the ones claiming a little more affiliation. One of the most alluring benefits of membership in my synagogue, where everyone except our Rabbi has Medicare benefits, is a perk introduced a generation or two ago. Every member has entitlement to a burial plot in the congregational cemetery. As our membership swooned from 350 to 105 families in my time there, most of the departures were young adults who defected or disaffiliated, and older members who claimed their piece of eternity. Even those who retired to Florida maintain a nominal membership to keep that benefit, which continues into widowhood irrespective of membership if the spouse is already buried there.
Perhaps the older participants in the GSS and in the CES have had to bury a mate or had to consider their own final plans as chronic life-shortening conditions appear. The Silent Generation has Veterans who get free burial. We boomers have much less of that entitlement. The church or synagogue offers something very valuable to them which commercial sources find hard to duplicate. No additional attendance required.
That was my thought as well: some contingent turning toward religion as they approach the end of life. That turn could be more about belief / belonging--adopting religious beliefs and self-identifying as religious--without a change in religious attendance.
Evidence certainly doesn't point that way.
https://www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/the-generational-collapse-of-american
One idea might be to look to see if the trend shows up by income or education group for boomers. Could it perhaps be earlier deaths among those who are less well off, who also are less religious?
As a Canadian who gets fed a lot of American media (especially on socials), it seems to me that there's been a bit of a resurgence of the religious left. I see influencers, pastors, and politicians responding to Trump by being more vocal about the Bible and Jesus being much more concerned about social justice than Christian Nationalists are. I'm sure some of that is just the algorithms echoing my own convictions back at me, but I don't think it's just that. So, my gut response when I saw the graph showing a big decline among Democrats was that religious identity is becoming important on the left again, in a way that was more common on the right in recent years. The fact that there's no comparable trend in the GSS gives me pause. But, if it were true, it might explain the discrepancy between the affiliation and attendance questions, since the thing that has social currency right now is the public identity, more than the religious behaviour.
Mortality perhaps is coming in to play more and more for boomers. I'm one of the earliest (1946) and we're dying off more rapidly now. A quick look on-line suggests that religion has a positive association with longevity for boomers, which translates into a lower percentage nones. As well, the "nothing in particular" members are not "real" nonbelievers and might return to the fold? I guess membership in political groups could also change, perhaps especially given recent dynamics? And the width of the boomer category probably means older ones like me differ from younger ones. If you're not there yet, 80 years of age is definitely different than 60!
My instinct would be to check differential mortality rates and see what sort of impact they would have on the data. While I don’t think it would explain it all - it would give the data a nudge in the observed direction.
I don't see it mentioned here, but what are the nones turning to? The baseline assumption seems to be Christianity of some sort since you are checking it against church attendance, but that is not necessarily the case. Or, at least I would want evidence that that is what's happening.
Another factor might be that this is some kind of political religion where self-ID is the only meaningful variable. But I do get that you are more using attendance as a calibration than an actual measure of change.
But the CES/GSS divergence is peculiar.
Ryan put out a post last year which showed a 3 percentage point increase in the "other faith" category between the last two GSS surveys. But I'm not sure if I trust a swing like that over such a short time period (unless if it is explainable by immigration patterns) and likely some of the "other faith" folks are just misclassified Christians.
Could it be a simple return to previous generations were it’s not necessarily less acceptable to be unaffiliated but it’s more socially desirable to refer to oneself as a religious believer (rather an even spiritual) of some kind?
Came here to say the same thing as everyone else. If you look at the same demographic of people as they age, does their religiosity change over time - especially as they approach end of life?
They don't.
https://www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/the-generational-collapse-of-american
Attendance stayed rock steady for Boomers. And Gen X
Ryan approached one angle of that question with a Facebook post: https://www.facebook.com/ryanburgewrites/posts/pfbid0SHABN6tN8t4t3jLVJDTrWh9GBjwDZKD9av1TcJ3rtWqe4nAip8vUCcdZuNBjk91pl
Could it be reversion to thinking about God more and thinking about oneself as eeligious as early boomers start to face the end of life?
Crazy right there with you.
Hi Ryan, I'm going to throw out an idea why boomers have less "nones" as the years go by. And it's got nothing to do with politics, and everything to do with technology. A couple of years ago I started paying attention to John Burke's (Christ follower) research of Near Death Experience testimonies. (I'm 78). I think it's natural for old people to want to "know" if there life after death? And the technology makes these stories available to anyone who wants to take the time to listen. People are changing their minds. Authentic (NOT AI generated) are convincing.
YES there is Jesus. He IS love. 20% of the population has this continuing to exist experience, no NOT everyone meets Jesus and many from other religious teachings do. And . . there IS a hell.
This is consistent with the thesis in Sacred and Secular, by Norris & Englehart (2012), where they found that increased religiosity corresponds to financial and physical insecurity. This is the impact of the OBBB and the war on Iran. It's a variant of the Foxhole thesis and the Marxist theory of religion. That would also explain the increase among younger people as their prospects dim. Those young adults experienced the impact of the Great Recession during their formative years as well, a sort of double-whammy.