Your regression analysis here finds that the two strongest negative predictors of faith in higher education are being white and identifying as Republican. That’s a politically loaded finding, but I think it reflects years of cultural messaging from conservative media and politicians, especially if we recall how often colleges are discussed as bastions of liberal indoctrination.
Add in high tuition costs, DEI controversies, and campus protests, and it’s easy to see how the image of academia has shifted from ivory tower to ideological battleground.
What’s notable, though, is your finding that religious affiliation itself isn’t a significant predictor of views on higher ed; instead, religious attendance is. In fact, regular churchgoers, particularly those with graduate degrees, tend to view higher education more positively.
This data would contradict any tidy claims that religion is inherently anti-intellectual. It seems to me the real divide may be cultural orientation: whether someone is actually embedded in institutions that foster trust and engagement, or alienated from them entirely.
Mr. Roman, RE: t seems to me the real divide may be cultural orientation: whether someone is ACTUALLY CULTURALLY IMBEDDED IN INSTITUTIONS that foster trust and engagement, or alienated from them entirely.
This insight was an ahhh-haaa moment for me. Much thanks for sharing.
In terms of the way education is structured, I think there's a lot of regret that the system is what it is, even if we have different ideas about how to repair it (if that's even possible).
I would predict that many of the college-educated people agreeing with the statement "college is not a smart investment" are mainly trying to express that they think the system is broken and overpriced. But in most cases they're nonetheless going to direct their own children (or grandchildren) towards college, while trying to be smarter about it. I'm mainly of this view.
The schools that are getting most badly crushed by the enrollment cliff are those that plainly offer bad value for the money. Above all, private schools that are less selective than nearby public schools, priced much higher, without much of an endowment for scholarship money, and whose survival has mainly relied on recruiting middling athletes to play sports in pursuit of a hopeless dream.
In terms of actual intent to send one's kids to college, I suspect there's a bigger divide than appears in these numbers between those who did, and did not, complete college themselves. If you could break out the "some college" crowd here, I'll speculate that they might be the most hostile to it: those who attended college and didn't flourish there or otherwise didn't see enough value to stick with it, and possibly ended up with some loans but no degree for their trouble.
Thank you for the article and thoughtful engagement with the data. Value is a subjective calculation and it is interesting to consider the factors that influence the perception of the value of higher education.
I would be very interested to see this data coupled with some objective data evaluating the median cost of higher education vs. median return for each of these age groups. Perhaps it isn't just a feeling of distrust, but the realization that most degrees are in fact not the best financial choice for many people, depending upon their aspirations.
As another commenter mentioned there has been a palpable shift from the aim of developing broadly and deeply educated virtuous (at least in the philosophical sense) men and women, to something akin to trade school for the white collar middle class. The former model is a question of investment in self, while the latter is likely to be a purely economic consideration.
As another commenter mentioned there has been a palpable shift from the aim of developing broadly and deeply educated virtuous (at least in the philosophical sense) men and women, to something akin to trade school for the white collar middle class.
I've been thinking about this tradeschool vs. college since DJT got elected and reading about what education should be in Project 2025: technicians who do, rather than deep thinkers who plant worms in people's ears about things like justice and DEI and...you get my drift.
As a 1964 graduate of Villanova University when it was still faithfully Catholic is unrecognizable today. Classical Catholic Education was never meant to be a trade school. When I attended we had to wear slacks, shirt with a collar, tie and sport or suit coat. In addition we had a 3 credit course of attendance. Furthermore grades were sent home so your parents, who were paying, could see if you were producing their money's worth.
The idea that the sole purpose of a classical Catholic education was to get a job was secondary. The purpose was to build a good Catholic gentleman who would love our Lord and be a moral and generous servant to the common good. My total tuition for four years was $5,000,00 not counting room and board. Off campus it was $125.00 per month. Today for a degree in Islamic Studies or Navel Gazing the tuition is $65,000 per year and one graduates as a useful idiot.
I can speak about my experience of being in a conservative evangelical church. It was rare that education was ever denigrated openly. But it was also rare that it was mentioned at all.
My criticism of the pastor was that he didn’t preach what he practiced. That is 3 of his 4 daughters were college (or more) educated. But he never spoke of education as a good from the pulpit.
Given that this is a correlation, it’s not surprising that white & Republican are negatively related to perceived value of higher education. Education has been historically considered a path to success particularly to offset white privilege.
I imagine whites/Republicans consider current higher education rife with ‘reverse’ discrimination & wokeness.
I heard the quote from Dennis Prager that Harvard is a Jewish idol. I think that mindset fits the data. Keep up the good work Ryan these are so fascinating.
As usual, an excellent analysis! But I think the main takeaway that overrides this whole subject is what Ryan wrote in the intro..."Gallup data shows that confidence in higher education declined from 57% in 2015 to just 36% in 2024". A 21% decline in just the last 10 years during the "anti-elite" Presidency/movement overshadows the entire assessment. Trump's success in turning people away from research, analysis and just plain old thinking is astounding. And horrifying.
I found this an interesting analysis or how followers of different religions view higher ed. The author notes that Jews have one of the most favorable attitudes toward the academy. I am not sure, however, if the author understands how deeply baked this perspective is in American Jewish culture. I am a Jew who graduated high school in 1969 with a C+ average which put me into something like the top third of my class— a slightly better than average student but not an outstanding one. It never occurred to me that I had an option of not going to college, perhaps I never did.
Are we reading the same age stratified graph regarding the value of higher education? But for Evangelicals it appears the younger you are, the less impressed.
Regarding the appreciation for higher education among Muslims and Hindus: I note that in the United States, both these religious groups have overrepresentation by immigrants--if not first-generation immigrants, then the children of immigrants. Immigrants in these groups primarily immigrate for better job and educational opportunities, meaning this is already a population that very highly values education. Immigrants don't cleanly represent the average values of people in the country they immigrated from; they represent the values of people who chose to leave that place. I know analyzing data from outside the USA is not really your thing, but it would be interesting to see what support for higher education is like among Muslims in, say, Pakistan, and Hindus in India.
I'm sure that you don't have enough data points to meaningfully stratify on this, but if might be interesting if it were possible to stratify smaller religious groups like Muslims and Hindus based on educational attainment. Do the rare less-educated American Hindus still support higher education, or would they follow the same pattern as less-educated Americans in other religious groups?
Your regression analysis here finds that the two strongest negative predictors of faith in higher education are being white and identifying as Republican. That’s a politically loaded finding, but I think it reflects years of cultural messaging from conservative media and politicians, especially if we recall how often colleges are discussed as bastions of liberal indoctrination.
Add in high tuition costs, DEI controversies, and campus protests, and it’s easy to see how the image of academia has shifted from ivory tower to ideological battleground.
What’s notable, though, is your finding that religious affiliation itself isn’t a significant predictor of views on higher ed; instead, religious attendance is. In fact, regular churchgoers, particularly those with graduate degrees, tend to view higher education more positively.
This data would contradict any tidy claims that religion is inherently anti-intellectual. It seems to me the real divide may be cultural orientation: whether someone is actually embedded in institutions that foster trust and engagement, or alienated from them entirely.
Mr. Roman, RE: t seems to me the real divide may be cultural orientation: whether someone is ACTUALLY CULTURALLY IMBEDDED IN INSTITUTIONS that foster trust and engagement, or alienated from them entirely.
This insight was an ahhh-haaa moment for me. Much thanks for sharing.
In terms of the way education is structured, I think there's a lot of regret that the system is what it is, even if we have different ideas about how to repair it (if that's even possible).
I would predict that many of the college-educated people agreeing with the statement "college is not a smart investment" are mainly trying to express that they think the system is broken and overpriced. But in most cases they're nonetheless going to direct their own children (or grandchildren) towards college, while trying to be smarter about it. I'm mainly of this view.
The schools that are getting most badly crushed by the enrollment cliff are those that plainly offer bad value for the money. Above all, private schools that are less selective than nearby public schools, priced much higher, without much of an endowment for scholarship money, and whose survival has mainly relied on recruiting middling athletes to play sports in pursuit of a hopeless dream.
In terms of actual intent to send one's kids to college, I suspect there's a bigger divide than appears in these numbers between those who did, and did not, complete college themselves. If you could break out the "some college" crowd here, I'll speculate that they might be the most hostile to it: those who attended college and didn't flourish there or otherwise didn't see enough value to stick with it, and possibly ended up with some loans but no degree for their trouble.
Thank you for the article and thoughtful engagement with the data. Value is a subjective calculation and it is interesting to consider the factors that influence the perception of the value of higher education.
I would be very interested to see this data coupled with some objective data evaluating the median cost of higher education vs. median return for each of these age groups. Perhaps it isn't just a feeling of distrust, but the realization that most degrees are in fact not the best financial choice for many people, depending upon their aspirations.
As another commenter mentioned there has been a palpable shift from the aim of developing broadly and deeply educated virtuous (at least in the philosophical sense) men and women, to something akin to trade school for the white collar middle class. The former model is a question of investment in self, while the latter is likely to be a purely economic consideration.
As another commenter mentioned there has been a palpable shift from the aim of developing broadly and deeply educated virtuous (at least in the philosophical sense) men and women, to something akin to trade school for the white collar middle class.
I've been thinking about this tradeschool vs. college since DJT got elected and reading about what education should be in Project 2025: technicians who do, rather than deep thinkers who plant worms in people's ears about things like justice and DEI and...you get my drift.
As a 1964 graduate of Villanova University when it was still faithfully Catholic is unrecognizable today. Classical Catholic Education was never meant to be a trade school. When I attended we had to wear slacks, shirt with a collar, tie and sport or suit coat. In addition we had a 3 credit course of attendance. Furthermore grades were sent home so your parents, who were paying, could see if you were producing their money's worth.
The idea that the sole purpose of a classical Catholic education was to get a job was secondary. The purpose was to build a good Catholic gentleman who would love our Lord and be a moral and generous servant to the common good. My total tuition for four years was $5,000,00 not counting room and board. Off campus it was $125.00 per month. Today for a degree in Islamic Studies or Navel Gazing the tuition is $65,000 per year and one graduates as a useful idiot.
I can speak about my experience of being in a conservative evangelical church. It was rare that education was ever denigrated openly. But it was also rare that it was mentioned at all.
My criticism of the pastor was that he didn’t preach what he practiced. That is 3 of his 4 daughters were college (or more) educated. But he never spoke of education as a good from the pulpit.
So disappointing.
And he had a master’s.
Given that this is a correlation, it’s not surprising that white & Republican are negatively related to perceived value of higher education. Education has been historically considered a path to success particularly to offset white privilege.
I imagine whites/Republicans consider current higher education rife with ‘reverse’ discrimination & wokeness.
I heard the quote from Dennis Prager that Harvard is a Jewish idol. I think that mindset fits the data. Keep up the good work Ryan these are so fascinating.
As usual, an excellent analysis! But I think the main takeaway that overrides this whole subject is what Ryan wrote in the intro..."Gallup data shows that confidence in higher education declined from 57% in 2015 to just 36% in 2024". A 21% decline in just the last 10 years during the "anti-elite" Presidency/movement overshadows the entire assessment. Trump's success in turning people away from research, analysis and just plain old thinking is astounding. And horrifying.
I found this an interesting analysis or how followers of different religions view higher ed. The author notes that Jews have one of the most favorable attitudes toward the academy. I am not sure, however, if the author understands how deeply baked this perspective is in American Jewish culture. I am a Jew who graduated high school in 1969 with a C+ average which put me into something like the top third of my class— a slightly better than average student but not an outstanding one. It never occurred to me that I had an option of not going to college, perhaps I never did.
Are we reading the same age stratified graph regarding the value of higher education? But for Evangelicals it appears the younger you are, the less impressed.
Regarding the appreciation for higher education among Muslims and Hindus: I note that in the United States, both these religious groups have overrepresentation by immigrants--if not first-generation immigrants, then the children of immigrants. Immigrants in these groups primarily immigrate for better job and educational opportunities, meaning this is already a population that very highly values education. Immigrants don't cleanly represent the average values of people in the country they immigrated from; they represent the values of people who chose to leave that place. I know analyzing data from outside the USA is not really your thing, but it would be interesting to see what support for higher education is like among Muslims in, say, Pakistan, and Hindus in India.
I'm sure that you don't have enough data points to meaningfully stratify on this, but if might be interesting if it were possible to stratify smaller religious groups like Muslims and Hindus based on educational attainment. Do the rare less-educated American Hindus still support higher education, or would they follow the same pattern as less-educated Americans in other religious groups?