"After all that, I can only say one of two things: “You’re welcome” or “I’m sorry” for taking you through what the world looks like from my perspective on a day-to-day basis. It’s fun. And frustrating."
I say that your work is very interesting and I look forward to every post. I can't believe that you're able to post not one but two compelling article every week. Where do you get the time?
Question, since I do not have your email address: Can you (or have you) post on the average number of parishioners per minister/priest/whatever per denomination?
That's a great question about ratio of clergy to parishioners. I'm not even sure how I could go about answering it. There may be a handful of denominations that consistently post statistics on their number of ministers. And it would be mostly mainline traditions, which would make the ratios pretty low.
The Catholics would keep some statistics on this. For us Jews, our subdivisions differ a lot. The Conservative and Reform movements have centralized hiring processes for their affiliate congregations. They have guidelines for how many senior and associate rabbis that congregations of different sizes ought to have. There is some autonomy that individual synagogues have, often restrained by finances that affect hiring. And there is currently a shortage of rabbis for those congregations, so that synagogues can now seek clergy trained outside their own movements. The Orthodox world is more amorphous. They have less standardized training, men seeking rabbinical education who have no intention of becomeing congregational rabbis, opting largely for positions in the educational system. This would be much harder to track.
A lot of perception depends on what you experience. The number of auto collisions in a day relative to the number of drivers is pretty small. If you are the claims adjuster receiving multiple calls each day, your mind screens out the people who got where they want to go safely. The number of kids actually chased across a college quad by a hostile student with a bullhorn is pretty small relative to the student body. Even the number of cheering onlookers is not that large. But small numbers, whether fender benders or harassed students, still have public importance. Attention beyond real prevalence still has a public benefit, maybe even a public imperative.
On trend rates, the prevalence of diabetes has accelerated during my professional lifetime as an endocrinologist. The ability to avoid or cope with organ damage from it has greatly improved, again gradually over decades. Neither with statistical inflection points. Both important.
One of the limitations of statistics, whether trend lines that do not change quickly or perceptions that seem exaggerated relative to the raw data, is that they can misrepresent the importance of what is being experienced.
Ryan, I share your frustration and concern. In the field of quality management, an assessment of the general public's numerical literacy (see the Red Bead Experiment) generally results in a 100% failure rate.
There are tools that help distinguish Signals (outliers) from Noise. One of the more basic tools is a run chart such as the one you used at the beginning of the article - Support for Abortion (1977-2024). One of the more basic standards for identifying trends is the Rule of 7. Link to an article in response to one of your previous posts: https://timjclark.substack.com/p/a-quality-management-perspective
It is all too common for people to make conclusions based on one or two data points. W. Edwards Deming developed his Red Bead Experiment (see Test Your Knowledge of the variation principle) to help raise awareness of better methods for developing numerical literacy and improving decision-making. Link to an illustration of the experiment and additional information at the following. https://successthroughquality.com/
"After all that, I can only say one of two things: “You’re welcome” or “I’m sorry” for taking you through what the world looks like from my perspective on a day-to-day basis. It’s fun. And frustrating."
I say that your work is very interesting and I look forward to every post. I can't believe that you're able to post not one but two compelling article every week. Where do you get the time?
Question, since I do not have your email address: Can you (or have you) post on the average number of parishioners per minister/priest/whatever per denomination?
Thanks or your work!
That's a great question about ratio of clergy to parishioners. I'm not even sure how I could go about answering it. There may be a handful of denominations that consistently post statistics on their number of ministers. And it would be mostly mainline traditions, which would make the ratios pretty low.
The Catholics would keep some statistics on this. For us Jews, our subdivisions differ a lot. The Conservative and Reform movements have centralized hiring processes for their affiliate congregations. They have guidelines for how many senior and associate rabbis that congregations of different sizes ought to have. There is some autonomy that individual synagogues have, often restrained by finances that affect hiring. And there is currently a shortage of rabbis for those congregations, so that synagogues can now seek clergy trained outside their own movements. The Orthodox world is more amorphous. They have less standardized training, men seeking rabbinical education who have no intention of becomeing congregational rabbis, opting largely for positions in the educational system. This would be much harder to track.
I always glean new ideas that deepen and help me put meaning to my understanding of the information I take in daily. Thank you Ryan!
A lot of perception depends on what you experience. The number of auto collisions in a day relative to the number of drivers is pretty small. If you are the claims adjuster receiving multiple calls each day, your mind screens out the people who got where they want to go safely. The number of kids actually chased across a college quad by a hostile student with a bullhorn is pretty small relative to the student body. Even the number of cheering onlookers is not that large. But small numbers, whether fender benders or harassed students, still have public importance. Attention beyond real prevalence still has a public benefit, maybe even a public imperative.
On trend rates, the prevalence of diabetes has accelerated during my professional lifetime as an endocrinologist. The ability to avoid or cope with organ damage from it has greatly improved, again gradually over decades. Neither with statistical inflection points. Both important.
One of the limitations of statistics, whether trend lines that do not change quickly or perceptions that seem exaggerated relative to the raw data, is that they can misrepresent the importance of what is being experienced.
Seriously, this is an excellent piece. I hope you do more like this about the art (not science) of statistical analysis.
I might watch a show about Cedar Rapids Methodists!
Ryan, I share your frustration and concern. In the field of quality management, an assessment of the general public's numerical literacy (see the Red Bead Experiment) generally results in a 100% failure rate.
There are tools that help distinguish Signals (outliers) from Noise. One of the more basic tools is a run chart such as the one you used at the beginning of the article - Support for Abortion (1977-2024). One of the more basic standards for identifying trends is the Rule of 7. Link to an article in response to one of your previous posts: https://timjclark.substack.com/p/a-quality-management-perspective
It is all too common for people to make conclusions based on one or two data points. W. Edwards Deming developed his Red Bead Experiment (see Test Your Knowledge of the variation principle) to help raise awareness of better methods for developing numerical literacy and improving decision-making. Link to an illustration of the experiment and additional information at the following. https://successthroughquality.com/
You list among the smaller denominations the Presbyterian Church of America. Did you mean Presbyterian Church in America?
I did. It's a mistake I make ALL the time.