Their distribution of religion is a little different than ours. United CC had a very large share of Canadians with a steep decline; their evangenlicals have less of a presence than in the American Bible Belt. They also had a different immigration pattern than in the USA, where certain immigrant groups affiliate Catholic to prop up declines among other segments of the American population. And the Muslim representation is far higher in Canada than in the USA. All of these will affect the distribution and comparisons.
Prof Bibby likely included his reasoning for his prediction in his book. Forecasts require assumptions along with data. It would be interesting to know which foundations to his predictions led him astray.
On projections, they typically do not anticipate a reaction to the trend or counteraction. What are the consequences of declining religious belief? Believing in "none" would have a different effect than believing in Christ.
I remember when Catholicism collapsed in Quebec in the 1960's. It barely made the news in the US but it sure was an earthquake north of the border. I'd love to know more about the causes.
Ryan's figures probably underestimate the decrease for Canada. Increasingly, immigration to Canada, which is substantial, comes from regions with highly religious populations: Africa, Middle East, India, and South East Asia. Immigrants may be somewhat less religious than remainders, but not as irreligious as average native Canadian.
And religious affiliation underestimates difference between Americans and Canadians. Difference much larger on measures like importance of religion. Indeed, USA stands out relative to many developed countries on that metric. Here's somewhat dated figures: USA 2x higher percentage Religion Very Important than Canada, and 5x higher than much of northern Europe.
Their distribution of religion is a little different than ours. United CC had a very large share of Canadians with a steep decline; their evangenlicals have less of a presence than in the American Bible Belt. They also had a different immigration pattern than in the USA, where certain immigrant groups affiliate Catholic to prop up declines among other segments of the American population. And the Muslim representation is far higher in Canada than in the USA. All of these will affect the distribution and comparisons.
Prof Bibby likely included his reasoning for his prediction in his book. Forecasts require assumptions along with data. It would be interesting to know which foundations to his predictions led him astray.
On projections, they typically do not anticipate a reaction to the trend or counteraction. What are the consequences of declining religious belief? Believing in "none" would have a different effect than believing in Christ.
A follow-up post on the topic: https://timjclark.substack.com/p/when-belief-declines-what-holds-society
I remember when Catholicism collapsed in Quebec in the 1960's. It barely made the news in the US but it sure was an earthquake north of the border. I'd love to know more about the causes.
Ryan's figures probably underestimate the decrease for Canada. Increasingly, immigration to Canada, which is substantial, comes from regions with highly religious populations: Africa, Middle East, India, and South East Asia. Immigrants may be somewhat less religious than remainders, but not as irreligious as average native Canadian.
https://www.cardus.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Figure-01.png
And religious affiliation underestimates difference between Americans and Canadians. Difference much larger on measures like importance of religion. Indeed, USA stands out relative to many developed countries on that metric. Here's somewhat dated figures: USA 2x higher percentage Religion Very Important than Canada, and 5x higher than much of northern Europe.
https://i.redd.it/pkamegrd38ig1.jpeg
Predictions about secularization across time also hazardous given current growth in backlash from religious nationalism.