Great post. In a time of nationalized news media and the flattening effects of social media, it’s so cool to be reminded of how historical demography reverberates through the country.
there is currently a hotly contested Congressional Race, NY-17, the district where I was raised in the 1960s. It is now the district with the highest concentration of ultra-orthodox Jews, currently held by a sorta but not entirely MAGA Republican with a mainstream Democrat also doing her best to appeal to that group. While the Hasidim have many sects, each votes as a bloc under the direction of their Rabbi. So even though they constitute about 15% of a very suburban district, one candidate will get a lot of votes while the other gets virtually none. The two candidates share similar pro-Israel views, a litmus test for that group. The other litmus test is autonomy of their schools, even when they do not perform to state educational benchmarks. Economics is important but less critical. Many have low-paying jobs or no jobs, so governmental benefits for medical care and income are welcome. Despite low income, these communities do not have markers of poverty such as crime, homelessness, or substance abuse. Wealth is concentrated, often considerable, and distributed in a benevolent way, but subsidies for school and medical care will sway a Rebbe. Because of this they tend to vote Democratic in local elections and Republican in federal elections.
Great post. In a time of nationalized news media and the flattening effects of social media, it’s so cool to be reminded of how historical demography reverberates through the country.
I'd love to see the same analysis for Jews, Muslims, Hindus, etc but I guess the numbers are just too small.
there is currently a hotly contested Congressional Race, NY-17, the district where I was raised in the 1960s. It is now the district with the highest concentration of ultra-orthodox Jews, currently held by a sorta but not entirely MAGA Republican with a mainstream Democrat also doing her best to appeal to that group. While the Hasidim have many sects, each votes as a bloc under the direction of their Rabbi. So even though they constitute about 15% of a very suburban district, one candidate will get a lot of votes while the other gets virtually none. The two candidates share similar pro-Israel views, a litmus test for that group. The other litmus test is autonomy of their schools, even when they do not perform to state educational benchmarks. Economics is important but less critical. Many have low-paying jobs or no jobs, so governmental benefits for medical care and income are welcome. Despite low income, these communities do not have markers of poverty such as crime, homelessness, or substance abuse. Wealth is concentrated, often considerable, and distributed in a benevolent way, but subsidies for school and medical care will sway a Rebbe. Because of this they tend to vote Democratic in local elections and Republican in federal elections.
Should’t you do a similar analysis for the fourth major religious group in America: the Nones?
https://x.com/ryanburge/status/2116640971639361555?s=19
That's a lot of information. I guess since the data is a bit stale we don't know how the GOP lead gerrymandering affects things.