Hooray for using birth cohorts! Really, a much more explanatory measure than Generations and uses a fact-based descriptor instead of what can be an "othering" label.
Given the sample sizes of the General Social Survey, do you know what kinds of movements among cohorts are statistically significant? For example, the 1965-1969 birth cohort shows a 6 percentage point drop from the 2010s to the 2020s, though it now resembles 1990s levels, so I’m guessing that is just noise in the data?
While it doesn't account for the base cause of the decline, I think it makes a lot of sense that a drop like this is self-sustaining. The less people are religious, the more "normal" being nonreligious becomes, and social pressure to be religious goes way down; going to church stops being an expectation and stops according the social benefit of being perceived as more upstanding or trustworthy. The culture changes. You go from a situation where everyone is religious, where it is simply *what is done,* to an ambient none-ness where going to church makes you the *weird* one amongst your peers.
I was born in 1963, and when I was old enough to notice, I don't remember the average church pastor being great. But as I was growing up there wasn't an easy way to question teachings, so you tended to just accept. Now we can look up and verify anything, and a lot of the stories I was told(NASA engineer remembers a Bible story to explain a missing day in their calculations, etc.) are known to be false
"why is religion not being handed down more effectively in the United States?" Most likely because it is not seen as relevant to everyday life and necessary for eternal life (survival). Fear is another variable. Much easier to interpret the Word to accommodate the culture. Interesting to read about the decline of belief and practice and then repeating the same strategies that contribute to the decline. And doesn't Revelation identify a systemic decline?
I'm familiar. Doesn't Smith argue that traditional religion is becoming obsolete, meaning many people no longer find it useful or necessary ... and that new forms of spirituality and alternative belief systems are emerging?
Maybe the Nicene Creed (and/or the Apostles Creed?) is a statement of belief that most, if not all, Christians can support? If so, the interpretation begins, creating a disconnect between faith and action, which supports the references to Jesus saying, "I don't know you." The effect of the deviation is less light in the world.
could use a clarification. In the first graph, 1972, the first bar has young adults. In the 2024 graph, thoses same people would straddle the last and next to the last bar. If attendance were determined in young adulthood and carried along, I would expect the lowest bar in 1972 to be transposed to the top bar in 2024, but it's not. The retirees in 2024, who were young adults in 1972, attend much less in their older years than they did in their younger years.
The life cycle also has adaptations that people make. As one of those people, our ability to latch onto larger social trends, from the cars we buy, to the entertainment we seek, to who we vote for adapts to what is available for us to accept and reject. That would include our religious practices.
Question: How are you accounting for people who "actively" participate in online ministries? My church, for example, has probably 3,000 people who attend on Sundays, but they claim their online ministry reaches over 2 million people around the world (even Bangladesh) in dozens of countries. It's one of those "consequences," I think is a continuing consequence of the pandemic.
To what extent is the trend influenced by the "normalization" of Sunday. When I was growing up there were few blue laws still on the books in Michigan-- the only ones I can think had to do with alcohol sales (no such sales until after noon on Sunday, and then only beer and wine, no distilled liquor). However by common custom stores did not open until after noon and closed early (6pm- ish), sports events, including things for kids, did not take place until the afternoon. Far fewer people had jobs that required Sunday working hours.
I'm early Gen X. I quit going to church (Catholic) when I was in my late teens. But ten years later I felt the urge to return, however not to Catholicism. I became Orthodox thirty years ago, almost to the day.
Hooray for using birth cohorts! Really, a much more explanatory measure than Generations and uses a fact-based descriptor instead of what can be an "othering" label.
The graph and table with shaded boxes is a great way to illustrate age-period-cohort analysis.
Given the sample sizes of the General Social Survey, do you know what kinds of movements among cohorts are statistically significant? For example, the 1965-1969 birth cohort shows a 6 percentage point drop from the 2010s to the 2020s, though it now resembles 1990s levels, so I’m guessing that is just noise in the data?
While it doesn't account for the base cause of the decline, I think it makes a lot of sense that a drop like this is self-sustaining. The less people are religious, the more "normal" being nonreligious becomes, and social pressure to be religious goes way down; going to church stops being an expectation and stops according the social benefit of being perceived as more upstanding or trustworthy. The culture changes. You go from a situation where everyone is religious, where it is simply *what is done,* to an ambient none-ness where going to church makes you the *weird* one amongst your peers.
“ The honest answer is - I really have no idea”
I do. Belief is based on truth. Teach the truth.
If you give them a reason to believe that’s based on truth, they will believe.
——————
The 75+ in 2024 were the 30+ in 1972. No change.
But why were pastors so much more effective at preaching "the truth" in 1960 vs today?
Were they better communicators? Were they blessed by God in a special way?
I was born in 1963, and when I was old enough to notice, I don't remember the average church pastor being great. But as I was growing up there wasn't an easy way to question teachings, so you tended to just accept. Now we can look up and verify anything, and a lot of the stories I was told(NASA engineer remembers a Bible story to explain a missing day in their calculations, etc.) are known to be false
I think they were better communicators. Ever listen to seminary students try to string a simple basic message together?
Love these graphs Ryan.
“ Were they better communicators? Were they blessed by God in a special way?”
Neither. The availability cascade, one of the most powerful forces in human behavior, explains it all.
https://effectiviology.com/availability-cascade/
Do you map the current events and how they might impact? The various wars, political scandals, etc?
I would have no idea how to even begin doing something like that, Wesley.
I do know that 9/11 had no durable impact on religiosity in the United States: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3118577/
"why is religion not being handed down more effectively in the United States?" Most likely because it is not seen as relevant to everyday life and necessary for eternal life (survival). Fear is another variable. Much easier to interpret the Word to accommodate the culture. Interesting to read about the decline of belief and practice and then repeating the same strategies that contribute to the decline. And doesn't Revelation identify a systemic decline?
I would point you to Christian Smith's new book: Why Religion Went Obsolete: The Demise of Traditional Faith in America
I'm familiar. Doesn't Smith argue that traditional religion is becoming obsolete, meaning many people no longer find it useful or necessary ... and that new forms of spirituality and alternative belief systems are emerging?
Re: Much easier to interpret the Word to accommodate the culture.
Chrsitians have been doing that since at least the days of Constantine.
Maybe the Nicene Creed (and/or the Apostles Creed?) is a statement of belief that most, if not all, Christians can support? If so, the interpretation begins, creating a disconnect between faith and action, which supports the references to Jesus saying, "I don't know you." The effect of the deviation is less light in the world.
It looks to me that the Never Attend categories at all age levels have increased by a factor of ~3.
could use a clarification. In the first graph, 1972, the first bar has young adults. In the 2024 graph, thoses same people would straddle the last and next to the last bar. If attendance were determined in young adulthood and carried along, I would expect the lowest bar in 1972 to be transposed to the top bar in 2024, but it's not. The retirees in 2024, who were young adults in 1972, attend much less in their older years than they did in their younger years.
The life cycle also has adaptations that people make. As one of those people, our ability to latch onto larger social trends, from the cars we buy, to the entertainment we seek, to who we vote for adapts to what is available for us to accept and reject. That would include our religious practices.
Question: How are you accounting for people who "actively" participate in online ministries? My church, for example, has probably 3,000 people who attend on Sundays, but they claim their online ministry reaches over 2 million people around the world (even Bangladesh) in dozens of countries. It's one of those "consequences," I think is a continuing consequence of the pandemic.
I've written about online attendance on several occasions. This is a good place to start:
https://www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-03a
Thanks.
I'm from the same cohort. Born in 1982. So I think about religion from that perspective a lot.
Two things jump out.
1. Evangelicalism surged in the 1990s. It hit an all time high in 1993. That's when we were coming of age. That shaped us.
2. New atheism hit about the right time. The Dawkins, Hitchens, Harris stuff blew up on YouTube as we were entering our "exploration" phase.
I wrote somewhere (I can't remember where) about how those exvangelical books were written by authors who were born between 1977 and 1984.
Which completely tracks.
To what extent is the trend influenced by the "normalization" of Sunday. When I was growing up there were few blue laws still on the books in Michigan-- the only ones I can think had to do with alcohol sales (no such sales until after noon on Sunday, and then only beer and wine, no distilled liquor). However by common custom stores did not open until after noon and closed early (6pm- ish), sports events, including things for kids, did not take place until the afternoon. Far fewer people had jobs that required Sunday working hours.
There are a couple of counties that I know of right off the top of my head in Florida that still have blue laws. Some sell no alcohol at all.
I agree with your comment.
I'm early Gen X. I quit going to church (Catholic) when I was in my late teens. But ten years later I felt the urge to return, however not to Catholicism. I became Orthodox thirty years ago, almost to the day.