My only problem w all these charts is that Mainline and Evangelical are lumped together as Protestants, though they are quite distinct in many ways. I have a feeling that one of the biggest shifts from the last 30 years is from Mainline to Evangelical.
Wonder how some of our congregational Rabbis would look at the data. While our Jewish retention is admirably high, at least as identity, our participation within an American Jewish ecosystem has not done as well. We don't become Nones but we change synagogues and we let our memberships lapse right after the consumer elements of a synagogue are no longer needed.
If there is a parallel, and I think there is, it seems to distill to how well people feel they are treated when they are there. For us it's how well do you like the Rabbi, are there cliques that exclude you, or other lapses of bonding social capital. Our transfer point was in the mid-1970s when shunning of interfaith families became part of the policy for our largest Jewish subdivision which shrunk Conservative synagogues and expanded Reform ones.
For the Christians, both Protestant and Catholic, the reckoning may have been initially political. A preacher declaring congregants unworthy because of their personal values puts people on the exit ramps. Churches depend on that type of bonding social capital. Go someplace else? Only if the religion has a form of bridging social capital, which it may not.
Ryan's essay has two forms of people leaving, though. Defectors who express dissatisfaction as the earlier group and consumers who assess the value of their experience, which also falters. My limited Jewish ecosystem may have better default options for the value seekers. We have advocacy groups, Jewish social agencies, and other forums that make no ideological demands of the people who check the box "Just Jewish" when asked their affiliations. The younger folks disaffiliating from their Christian world many not have as many alternate capture options.
I wonder among nones if there are other things that sort of function like a religion but we dont normally classifiy as religion. The Maga movement for one comes to mind. But one could think of many other examples. Once more than a half century ago I took a college course under the title Race, Class and Power. One of the classes our prof moderated a discussion on is football a religion. Well what are the characteristics of religion: (a) shared set of values; (b) belief in a higher power; (c) following charasmatic leaders; (d) rituals; (e) notions about reward and punishment.
I think you are right - but this is true among those who identify as religious as well. I think the Democratic and Republican parties are the two largest religious groups in the United States. Many (not all) people follow the moral teaching of their political party more than that of their church.
You make a vlaid point here -- but are people following a moral teaching or is just a tribal identity. I think tribal identity may be hardbaked into our species
Good observation. I remember from an old sociology class learning about the "functional equivalents of religion," in which the examples given were Marxism and psychotherapy.
Undoubtedly there must be such equivalents among the Nones, as systems of belief seem to be an inherent need in the human psyche.
I think this is an area in which qualitative research could supplement quantitative insights. How do become become nones. Is it a rejection or more of a drifting away. One of the curious things I have observed is a lack of interest in theology and people in the Protestant world easily moving from one denomination to another. Perhaps that expalins the growth of community churches who epmhasize feelings more than theology.
"Perhaps that expalins the growth of community churches who epmhasize feelings more than theology."
I would challenge that, though it may be true in some such communities, in my experience sound theology is the norm, hence "Bible" churches. Indeed, it is an attraction for many such as former Catholics.
I wonder if there are mediating effects here as well and not everyone is consciously leaving because of politics. If people with families are more likely to stay in their churches and also be more conservative, then people who are single and perhaps leave because they don't find church as useful and prefer to spend their weekend time on other things may also be less conservative because of there state of life.
Plowing through The Vanish Church now, very interesting but "racially-toned" analysis. You zero in on "white" evangelicals exclusively. Why? I have yet to read your presenting of comparative narrative wrt "white" Democrats, "white" mainline Protestants, "white" Jewish, "white" Catholics. What your point, seriously. Do the pollsters in these surveys exclusively target whites? How does that work in a survey phone call, or field surveys? I'd love to see the data on the shift to evangelicalism among other POC. My California church is 65% asian and evangelical.
I would have assumed that all "nones" were liberal! Wrong.
Tangentially, you noted that "The Latter-day Saints had the lowest retention of any group—just over half..." And per your your flow chart many become "nones." (A great chart by the way). Thus my comment: I know a fellow who is with Cru (formerly Campus Crusade for Christ) and whose mission field is one of the public universities in Utah. He's been in that mission field for about 15 years. I asked him if he had any success with evangelizing Mormon (sorry, LDS) students. He made an interesting comment which might have future application to that flow chart. His experience was that when young people left the LDS church they were not open to any discussions about religion; but, after about fives years of "none-ness" he found such folks became more open to such discussions and new possibilities about faith.
There is perhaps a certain dynamic to even being a None. It will be interesting to see how that chart looks 10 years from now.
I've been reading a lot about Libertarians lately...and am wondering into which bucket they are sorted. And I know they "sort" politically cuz I know a couple ... one leans Dem (on about everything except business-related issues) the other Rep (practically a MAGAt, but calls self a Libertarian).
A former colleague of mine who grew up Chicago Irish Catholic when I emailed him a question about Catholic theology he responded that because of all the scandals surrounding the church he himself was "disengaged" from the church. I am not sure he would describe himself as none as much as a disaffected Catholic or perhaps he is on his way to nonehood.
My only problem w all these charts is that Mainline and Evangelical are lumped together as Protestants, though they are quite distinct in many ways. I have a feeling that one of the biggest shifts from the last 30 years is from Mainline to Evangelical.
Wonder how some of our congregational Rabbis would look at the data. While our Jewish retention is admirably high, at least as identity, our participation within an American Jewish ecosystem has not done as well. We don't become Nones but we change synagogues and we let our memberships lapse right after the consumer elements of a synagogue are no longer needed.
If there is a parallel, and I think there is, it seems to distill to how well people feel they are treated when they are there. For us it's how well do you like the Rabbi, are there cliques that exclude you, or other lapses of bonding social capital. Our transfer point was in the mid-1970s when shunning of interfaith families became part of the policy for our largest Jewish subdivision which shrunk Conservative synagogues and expanded Reform ones.
For the Christians, both Protestant and Catholic, the reckoning may have been initially political. A preacher declaring congregants unworthy because of their personal values puts people on the exit ramps. Churches depend on that type of bonding social capital. Go someplace else? Only if the religion has a form of bridging social capital, which it may not.
Ryan's essay has two forms of people leaving, though. Defectors who express dissatisfaction as the earlier group and consumers who assess the value of their experience, which also falters. My limited Jewish ecosystem may have better default options for the value seekers. We have advocacy groups, Jewish social agencies, and other forums that make no ideological demands of the people who check the box "Just Jewish" when asked their affiliations. The younger folks disaffiliating from their Christian world many not have as many alternate capture options.
Hooray for divisions by birth decades instead of marketing generations!
I can't even do generations with Pew data. It's just birth decade.
I wonder among nones if there are other things that sort of function like a religion but we dont normally classifiy as religion. The Maga movement for one comes to mind. But one could think of many other examples. Once more than a half century ago I took a college course under the title Race, Class and Power. One of the classes our prof moderated a discussion on is football a religion. Well what are the characteristics of religion: (a) shared set of values; (b) belief in a higher power; (c) following charasmatic leaders; (d) rituals; (e) notions about reward and punishment.
I think you are right - but this is true among those who identify as religious as well. I think the Democratic and Republican parties are the two largest religious groups in the United States. Many (not all) people follow the moral teaching of their political party more than that of their church.
You make a vlaid point here -- but are people following a moral teaching or is just a tribal identity. I think tribal identity may be hardbaked into our species
Good observation. I remember from an old sociology class learning about the "functional equivalents of religion," in which the examples given were Marxism and psychotherapy.
Undoubtedly there must be such equivalents among the Nones, as systems of belief seem to be an inherent need in the human psyche.
I think this is an area in which qualitative research could supplement quantitative insights. How do become become nones. Is it a rejection or more of a drifting away. One of the curious things I have observed is a lack of interest in theology and people in the Protestant world easily moving from one denomination to another. Perhaps that expalins the growth of community churches who epmhasize feelings more than theology.
"Perhaps that expalins the growth of community churches who epmhasize feelings more than theology."
I would challenge that, though it may be true in some such communities, in my experience sound theology is the norm, hence "Bible" churches. Indeed, it is an attraction for many such as former Catholics.
I wonder if there are mediating effects here as well and not everyone is consciously leaving because of politics. If people with families are more likely to stay in their churches and also be more conservative, then people who are single and perhaps leave because they don't find church as useful and prefer to spend their weekend time on other things may also be less conservative because of there state of life.
Plowing through The Vanish Church now, very interesting but "racially-toned" analysis. You zero in on "white" evangelicals exclusively. Why? I have yet to read your presenting of comparative narrative wrt "white" Democrats, "white" mainline Protestants, "white" Jewish, "white" Catholics. What your point, seriously. Do the pollsters in these surveys exclusively target whites? How does that work in a survey phone call, or field surveys? I'd love to see the data on the shift to evangelicalism among other POC. My California church is 65% asian and evangelical.
I would have assumed that all "nones" were liberal! Wrong.
Tangentially, you noted that "The Latter-day Saints had the lowest retention of any group—just over half..." And per your your flow chart many become "nones." (A great chart by the way). Thus my comment: I know a fellow who is with Cru (formerly Campus Crusade for Christ) and whose mission field is one of the public universities in Utah. He's been in that mission field for about 15 years. I asked him if he had any success with evangelizing Mormon (sorry, LDS) students. He made an interesting comment which might have future application to that flow chart. His experience was that when young people left the LDS church they were not open to any discussions about religion; but, after about fives years of "none-ness" he found such folks became more open to such discussions and new possibilities about faith.
There is perhaps a certain dynamic to even being a None. It will be interesting to see how that chart looks 10 years from now.
I've been reading a lot about Libertarians lately...and am wondering into which bucket they are sorted. And I know they "sort" politically cuz I know a couple ... one leans Dem (on about everything except business-related issues) the other Rep (practically a MAGAt, but calls self a Libertarian).
A former colleague of mine who grew up Chicago Irish Catholic when I emailed him a question about Catholic theology he responded that because of all the scandals surrounding the church he himself was "disengaged" from the church. I am not sure he would describe himself as none as much as a disaffected Catholic or perhaps he is on his way to nonehood.