One of the narratives that is forming in the media right now when it comes to religion and the 2024 presidential election is the Muslim vote, especially in the state of Michigan. There are some prominent voices in the Islamic community who are upset about how President Biden has handled the conflict between Israel and Hamas since October. Many Muslims feel that Biden has been too friendly to the Israeli government.
I'm disappointed no one has made this point but the point in presidential election analysis is never state to state. Presidential elections are electoral so the states you list with larger Muslim populations are effectively irrelevant since they are not politically competitive. Michigan matters because it is the largest competitive state with a Muslim population.
The second problem is we are presuming only Muslims will vote on Muslim concerns. Large immigrant communities obviously intermarry, especially when you look at the later generations that follow on after initial immigration. So the so-called issues of Muslim interest are actually extended well past the population that would affiliate themselves with a particular faith. People who may be Christian who's son marries a Muslim person might adopt a heightened concern for "Muslim issues" quite naturally. Not to mention friends, social groups, and local business leaders. The number of people who would be sympathetic to the issues Muslim care about expands exponentially when you factor in these familial, social, and economic relationships.
And finally, if you notice there are places where Muslim population is concentrated locally within Michigan. In a state that is as politically balanced as Michigan is the importance of any voting block in an area takes on an outsized level of importance in the local and state political calculus. So much so that they may wield unusual power since they can swing the balance of power to the left or right. As such, while the number may seem small relative to the majority or other less coherent minorities, they still can become a keystone to how political strategists deliver a state to one candidate or another.
All of this to say that the political scientists are not wrong to suggest that a relatively small group of immigrants in one of America's largest states with a particular set of concerns can have a tremendous impact on the upcoming election, who runs the entire country, and how the worlds last remaining superpower acts over the next four years. History is actually replete with story of this exact thing happening. And to be honest it's refreshing to think that a population that most would consider marginalized and an afterthought might be so important in our democratic process. This is exactly how our Founders intended it to work.
This mirrors what I was going to say: Michigan is a "swing" state, the other states with higher Muslim percentages are firmly "blue."
AND, look at the percentage of "uncommitted" votes in the primary. Clearly it was more than Muslims who voted that way. I'm not in Michigan and I'm not Muslim, but I wrote in "uncommitted" on my primary ballot. When one looks at general polls, the percentage who are unhappy with the actions of the current Israeli government are much higher than just the Muslim population!
The Harris campaign has a very tight rope that they have to walk on the Israel/Gaza conflict. They need to signal support for Israeli defense for the many Americans who support Israel while also showing signs that they will actually get a ceasefire done. At the same time they can’t step on Biden’s toes too much, as he is still the President and President/VP infighting is not a good look.
At the end of the day I think the uncommitted group doesn’t have a ton of political power and they are using what little they have to try to push Harris away from the Biden administration position. I suspect if Harris does shift her position, it won’t be public until after she has taken office.
Thanks for breaking down the data. But optics matter. The Democrats must know the data already. Their concern is with optics and messaging. And possibly, the Muslim votes don't mean only actual Muslims, but all the voters who are taking the side against Israel in the current conflict.
So what's up with the Orthodox they have the most kids the youngest population why are they so young and fertile compared to the rest of the Orthodox World relatively speaking. The Orthodox world like in Russia or Serbia or Bosnia has the word grease they have the world's worst demography why is it doing so well here right now?
Precisely. The Muslim vote is rather insignificant statewide, Michigan is nowhere near being the largest Muslim population, and if 50% or more of Muslims don't vote for Harris in November (a very real possibility), it's unlikely to make a difference. Note- both fringe candidates, Stein and West, have selected Muslim running mates. This issue has received undue media attention.
Did Stein end up picking a Muslim running mate? I remember her considering Dearborn's mayor, but she ended up picking a UC Santa Barbara historian who was born in DC.
Being born in DC doesn't tell you much about someone's faith background. Butch Ware is a well-known Muslim convert who is popular within some (small) circles.
Ah, didn't know about that. I had only seen his bio on the univ website. I just wanted to be sure you weren't thinking of the Dearborn mayor (since it went viral when word leaked she was considering asking him to run)
I'm disappointed no one has made this point but the point in presidential election analysis is never state to state. Presidential elections are electoral so the states you list with larger Muslim populations are effectively irrelevant since they are not politically competitive. Michigan matters because it is the largest competitive state with a Muslim population.
The second problem is we are presuming only Muslims will vote on Muslim concerns. Large immigrant communities obviously intermarry, especially when you look at the later generations that follow on after initial immigration. So the so-called issues of Muslim interest are actually extended well past the population that would affiliate themselves with a particular faith. People who may be Christian who's son marries a Muslim person might adopt a heightened concern for "Muslim issues" quite naturally. Not to mention friends, social groups, and local business leaders. The number of people who would be sympathetic to the issues Muslim care about expands exponentially when you factor in these familial, social, and economic relationships.
And finally, if you notice there are places where Muslim population is concentrated locally within Michigan. In a state that is as politically balanced as Michigan is the importance of any voting block in an area takes on an outsized level of importance in the local and state political calculus. So much so that they may wield unusual power since they can swing the balance of power to the left or right. As such, while the number may seem small relative to the majority or other less coherent minorities, they still can become a keystone to how political strategists deliver a state to one candidate or another.
All of this to say that the political scientists are not wrong to suggest that a relatively small group of immigrants in one of America's largest states with a particular set of concerns can have a tremendous impact on the upcoming election, who runs the entire country, and how the worlds last remaining superpower acts over the next four years. History is actually replete with story of this exact thing happening. And to be honest it's refreshing to think that a population that most would consider marginalized and an afterthought might be so important in our democratic process. This is exactly how our Founders intended it to work.
This mirrors what I was going to say: Michigan is a "swing" state, the other states with higher Muslim percentages are firmly "blue."
AND, look at the percentage of "uncommitted" votes in the primary. Clearly it was more than Muslims who voted that way. I'm not in Michigan and I'm not Muslim, but I wrote in "uncommitted" on my primary ballot. When one looks at general polls, the percentage who are unhappy with the actions of the current Israeli government are much higher than just the Muslim population!
The Harris campaign has a very tight rope that they have to walk on the Israel/Gaza conflict. They need to signal support for Israeli defense for the many Americans who support Israel while also showing signs that they will actually get a ceasefire done. At the same time they can’t step on Biden’s toes too much, as he is still the President and President/VP infighting is not a good look.
At the end of the day I think the uncommitted group doesn’t have a ton of political power and they are using what little they have to try to push Harris away from the Biden administration position. I suspect if Harris does shift her position, it won’t be public until after she has taken office.
Thanks for breaking down the data. But optics matter. The Democrats must know the data already. Their concern is with optics and messaging. And possibly, the Muslim votes don't mean only actual Muslims, but all the voters who are taking the side against Israel in the current conflict.
I always appreciate it when someone puts numbers to ideas like this that float about. Thanks!
So what's up with the Orthodox they have the most kids the youngest population why are they so young and fertile compared to the rest of the Orthodox World relatively speaking. The Orthodox world like in Russia or Serbia or Bosnia has the word grease they have the world's worst demography why is it doing so well here right now?
One final comment. We used to feel so stupid saying we were tweeting on Twitter. You'll call it X one day I promise.
Precisely. The Muslim vote is rather insignificant statewide, Michigan is nowhere near being the largest Muslim population, and if 50% or more of Muslims don't vote for Harris in November (a very real possibility), it's unlikely to make a difference. Note- both fringe candidates, Stein and West, have selected Muslim running mates. This issue has received undue media attention.
Did Stein end up picking a Muslim running mate? I remember her considering Dearborn's mayor, but she ended up picking a UC Santa Barbara historian who was born in DC.
Being born in DC doesn't tell you much about someone's faith background. Butch Ware is a well-known Muslim convert who is popular within some (small) circles.
Ah, didn't know about that. I had only seen his bio on the univ website. I just wanted to be sure you weren't thinking of the Dearborn mayor (since it went viral when word leaked she was considering asking him to run)