I’m Gen Z and voted third party in the last election, but plan to vote Democrat in future elections provided they move to the left economically. I’m Mainline (UMC).
I think Gen Z is just cynical — most of my friends are politically heterodox compared to the parties and I think a substantial percentage of any given faith group is just voting for the “change candidate” in any given election. Most people under 30 lack any sense of hope for the United States’ future.
I think the more interesting analysis would be the state elections. For better or worse, the Presidential election depends on a domineering personality, good or bad. The state elections, particularly Governor but also Congressional districts, have to deal with education, property taxes, and pot holes as well as bathrooms and book bans. There are states that predictably elect one party or the other, and have been doing that for a long time, and a few that have flipped in either direction. How the young people and followers of different religions represented in those states may reveal considerably more than a high profile referendum on an individual.
Ryan, thank you for this interesting piece. One minor suggestion for the future: placing 3rd party percentages between Republican and Democrat percentages in the 100% bar charts would make it easier to quickly see patterns for both parties instead of one or the other (since only one is starting from a set axis).
Again, thanks for all your work in graphing religious activity and thought. I greatly appreciate this Substack!
Trump has three and a half years to exit the stage, not a couple. And it appears now the Presidency will remain in republican hands when he leaves. We will know more about the house and senate in November, 2026. Looks like the republicans could increase their majorities in both houses in 2026 and 2028. I think the religious vote will continue to trend higher for republican candidates as the democrats move further to the left. Considering the suprising movement of non-white voters toward the center, the odds favor the republicans.
Re: And it appears now the Presidency will remain in republican hands when he leaves. We will know more about the house and senate in November, 2026. Looks like the republicans could increase their majorities in both houses in 2026 and 2028.
Unless you have access to future time travel I have no idea how you can draw those conclusions. They are pure wishful thinking. GOP performance in recent elections when Trump was not on the ballot (e.g, the midterms of 2018, 2022) do not provide much cause for optimism. 2022 was especially startling as the the GOP expected the usual "out party" success and that flopped despite Trump's cheerleading from the sidelines (or maybe because of it). As for 2028 we have no idea who will be running for either party at this point, or what events will befall us in the meantime. Remember that Nixon and Reagan won massive landslides for reelection far beyond anything possible today-- and it did their parties not one whit of good the next cycle. The Permanent GOP Majority of 2004 did not survive 2006. And the Emerging Democratic Majority has utterly failed to emerge. These things are toss ups. One might as well predict when and where the first major hurricane will hit the US in 2028.
Whatever you are, my "speculation" about future elections is based on recent polling and other available data, not blind luck. Everyone knows politics is subject to change with the political winds. Why are you so riled up about my prediction?
And my point is that current day results, including polling from the most recent election, do not predict much for the more distant future. I cited instances which show as much. Moreover last year's election was a pretty narrow victory The GOP LOST House seats and had only mediocre performance at the state level. Trump enjoys a modicum of popularity, but the GOP does not.
I think all of these age gaps need to be correlated with how many of those voters actually turn out. I know that's the nature of election behavior but my hunch is that the Marketed Generations™️don't turn out to vote in equal numbers.
I’m Gen Z and voted third party in the last election, but plan to vote Democrat in future elections provided they move to the left economically. I’m Mainline (UMC).
I think Gen Z is just cynical — most of my friends are politically heterodox compared to the parties and I think a substantial percentage of any given faith group is just voting for the “change candidate” in any given election. Most people under 30 lack any sense of hope for the United States’ future.
I think the more interesting analysis would be the state elections. For better or worse, the Presidential election depends on a domineering personality, good or bad. The state elections, particularly Governor but also Congressional districts, have to deal with education, property taxes, and pot holes as well as bathrooms and book bans. There are states that predictably elect one party or the other, and have been doing that for a long time, and a few that have flipped in either direction. How the young people and followers of different religions represented in those states may reveal considerably more than a high profile referendum on an individual.
No Hindu Trump voters in 2024? That seems impossible; there are way too many Indian-American Republicans for that to be the case.
I think we're dealing with a sample size of like 20 people or something lol
Ryan, thank you for this interesting piece. One minor suggestion for the future: placing 3rd party percentages between Republican and Democrat percentages in the 100% bar charts would make it easier to quickly see patterns for both parties instead of one or the other (since only one is starting from a set axis).
Again, thanks for all your work in graphing religious activity and thought. I greatly appreciate this Substack!
Trump has three and a half years to exit the stage, not a couple. And it appears now the Presidency will remain in republican hands when he leaves. We will know more about the house and senate in November, 2026. Looks like the republicans could increase their majorities in both houses in 2026 and 2028. I think the religious vote will continue to trend higher for republican candidates as the democrats move further to the left. Considering the suprising movement of non-white voters toward the center, the odds favor the republicans.
Re: And it appears now the Presidency will remain in republican hands when he leaves. We will know more about the house and senate in November, 2026. Looks like the republicans could increase their majorities in both houses in 2026 and 2028.
Unless you have access to future time travel I have no idea how you can draw those conclusions. They are pure wishful thinking. GOP performance in recent elections when Trump was not on the ballot (e.g, the midterms of 2018, 2022) do not provide much cause for optimism. 2022 was especially startling as the the GOP expected the usual "out party" success and that flopped despite Trump's cheerleading from the sidelines (or maybe because of it). As for 2028 we have no idea who will be running for either party at this point, or what events will befall us in the meantime. Remember that Nixon and Reagan won massive landslides for reelection far beyond anything possible today-- and it did their parties not one whit of good the next cycle. The Permanent GOP Majority of 2004 did not survive 2006. And the Emerging Democratic Majority has utterly failed to emerge. These things are toss ups. One might as well predict when and where the first major hurricane will hit the US in 2028.
I lknew when I wrote my comment that democrats would not like it. I don't care. I call it like I see it.
I am not a Democrat.
And you might as well be trying to call the next set of Powerball numbers.
Whatever you are, my "speculation" about future elections is based on recent polling and other available data, not blind luck. Everyone knows politics is subject to change with the political winds. Why are you so riled up about my prediction?
And my point is that current day results, including polling from the most recent election, do not predict much for the more distant future. I cited instances which show as much. Moreover last year's election was a pretty narrow victory The GOP LOST House seats and had only mediocre performance at the state level. Trump enjoys a modicum of popularity, but the GOP does not.
I think all of these age gaps need to be correlated with how many of those voters actually turn out. I know that's the nature of election behavior but my hunch is that the Marketed Generations™️don't turn out to vote in equal numbers.