You amaze me with your mind for data. Thank you. As an aging Presbyterian pastor my take: life is impermanent. Do what you can to love what is before me, trusting what is to come, and being grateful for the good there is. Thanks again for the perspectives you share with us. It’s good work.
“30% of Americans want immigration decreased, down from 55% a year ago
Record-high 79% consider immigration good for the country
Support down for border wall, mass deportation
These findings are based on a June 2-26 Gallup poll of 1,402 U.S. adults, including oversamples of Hispanic and Black Americans, weighted to match national demographics.”
Is this poll large enough to be accurately indicative? The charts displayed show changes among Democrats, Independents and Republicans.
Thanks for posting recent polling data about immigration. Are these numbers — more accepting of immigration than in 2023-24 — due to the horrific ICE raids?
@RyanBurge — I’ve been sitting with your piece since I read it. It’s honest, clear-eyed, and painful in the way truth often is.
The way you talk about nostalgia really hit me. That ache to return—to something meaningful, something we’ve lost—is real. I’ve felt it. But I also see how easily that ache gets twisted. In a political and religious landscape like ours, nostalgia often becomes a shield against change, or worse, a weapon against others.
Your data makes that plain. It’s not really about denominations—it’s about partisanship. That’s the part that should unsettle all of us. Catholics, evangelicals, mainline Protestants—once you account for political identity, the patterns around immigration and gender identity are disturbingly aligned.
I’m a Catholic who believes in justice, inclusion, and the full dignity of every person. What you’ve shown here is a challenge for all of us who want faith to be a force for good in public life.
We don’t need to go back. We need to go deeper. Thanks for giving us the data—and the ache—to reflect on that.
These graphs don’t elucidate the complexity of the immigration issue. I have yet to meet anyone who says they are against immigration per se. It’s that it’s too many and too fast exceeding even the last height of inflow which was in 1915. The volume of people coming in creates incredible disruption in come communities especially urban. Money gets shifted to address refugee needs versus what the local community. Today in Massachusetts $5 million is being appropriated to offer legal assistance to refugees but is being taken away from local indigent poor who are accused of crimes, as one example. Data can only take you so far in understanding causality and nuances.
Yes -- though it's hard to do. I think the best we can see here is a referendum on the current state of immigration.
I have an elderly uncle -- a devout conservative Midwestern Baptist -- who watches Fox News all day long. I'm sure he would answer "Worse" on the immigration question. As would I, to be clear.
But my uncle's wife is from Honduras! He is of course not opposed to all immigration. He met her on a mission trip. She was part of the local church they were working alongside. He tells me they had major hassles getting her visa approved; for a time he wasn't sure if they would ever get to be together.
I'm guessing that for a lot of people, especially on the left, the word that comes to mind here is "hypocrisy." Immigration for me, but not for thee.
But the word that comes to my mind is "anarcho-tyranny." I don't think my uncle knows that word, but when he describes his beef with the immigration regime as he understands it, that's how I would summarize it.
"We have all these rules, but they only enforce them on good, law-abiding, churchgoing people like my wife. Meanwhile millions just walk cross the border with impunity, unvetted, and get to live and work here and access welfare."
I want to gently push back on the claim that the U.S. has "absorbed a third of the entire population of Honduras" in recent years, along with people from “myriad other countries in South America.”
Here’s what the numbers actually show:
Honduras has a population of about 10.5 million.
Roughly 1 million Hondurans live in the U.S.—about 10%, not one-third.
And that migration didn’t all happen “in recent years”—it’s been building over several decades, with spikes during times of political crisis, violence, and natural disasters.
Also worth noting: Honduras is in Central America, not South America. Most recent migration from South America comes from places like Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil, and those numbers are smaller in comparison.
It’s totally valid to talk about the scale and impact of immigration, but we owe it to ourselves—and each other—to start from accurate, grounded facts. Misinformation only fuels fear and division.
I agree this doesn’t address the nuance. I could be making a cynical read- do you think a significant number of the people responding to this survey are making these nuances?
Please define what you mean my Evangelical...I'm a bit confused. You stated that you have placed the LCMS in that category, yet I, a long time member of that denomination, do not, in any way, consider myself a part of that group. Thanks,
I’m pretty fascinated by this data. My priors before reading this piece would have pinned the GOP data on the acceptance of transgendered people in society pretty correctly, but I would’ve had the data in a much higher favorability for immigration than portrayed here.
"For what it’s worth, I don’t think I ever see progressive accounts on social media post pictures from the 1950s and 1960s of “idyllic America” - it’s just the Republicans doing that. Which, to me, speaks volumes about what Republicans think about the past compared to Democrats."
As noted below, Dems have their own nostalgia problem, it's just the era they pine for is Obama first term or COVID-era lockdowns. Cf with the constant refrain in Trump 45 of "THIS IS NOT NORMAL!"; this implies a change from an established norm. There's aslo a lot of decrying of a loss of civility and tone in Washington, which is pretty amusing to those of who remember the constant refrain of BUSH=HITLER in the early 2000s. Both sides have their windows for nostalgia for a world that doesn't exist anymore.
Thank you for sharing your heart-felt article about your closed church. I'm glad you've found a different way to answer your calling.
Re the data today: Can you clarify which denominations you consider as Mainline and which you consider as Evangelical in your charts and graphs? For example, I'm never really sure if the Assembly of Gods is deemed mainline or Evangelical. Same with Baptist excepting Southern Baptist. (Or maybe Southern Baptist is not Evangelical but I always thought they are due to their comparatively more conservative views.)
Interestingly, though, I find progressives to be more alarmed by technological changes than Republicans are. Almost all of the alarm bells I see raised about AI are coming from Democrats.
"Almost all of the alarm bells I see raised about AI are coming from Democrats."
This feels mostly due to Dems being anti-Tech (as in the Tech industry) right now for a lot of complicated reasons, in fairness. I don't know how much is organically derived from first principles vice in a reaction to a perceived hostile power center.
Although there's another interesting twist I've noticed: right now it's the Dems that are the "conservative" party in politics (in the sense that they seek to return to/prevent the collapse of norms and mores, only the era they long to RETVRN to is basically first-term Obama).
It is discouraging to see how much more influential politics are than religion. Evangelicals SAY the Bible is their authority, but to have nearly equal views of transgender and immigration shows that many are ignorant or indifferent to the Bible. Desperate people coming here illegally is not the same as encouraging the drugging and mutilation of confused men and women. This is not just an evangelical problem, but the other Christian traditions believe in other authorities outside of the Bible. I expect more from evangelicals.
You amaze me with your mind for data. Thank you. As an aging Presbyterian pastor my take: life is impermanent. Do what you can to love what is before me, trusting what is to come, and being grateful for the good there is. Thanks again for the perspectives you share with us. It’s good work.
The July 11, 2025 “highlights” from a Gallup poll (https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx):
“30% of Americans want immigration decreased, down from 55% a year ago
Record-high 79% consider immigration good for the country
Support down for border wall, mass deportation
These findings are based on a June 2-26 Gallup poll of 1,402 U.S. adults, including oversamples of Hispanic and Black Americans, weighted to match national demographics.”
Is this poll large enough to be accurately indicative? The charts displayed show changes among Democrats, Independents and Republicans.
Thanks for posting recent polling data about immigration. Are these numbers — more accepting of immigration than in 2023-24 — due to the horrific ICE raids?
@RyanBurge — I’ve been sitting with your piece since I read it. It’s honest, clear-eyed, and painful in the way truth often is.
The way you talk about nostalgia really hit me. That ache to return—to something meaningful, something we’ve lost—is real. I’ve felt it. But I also see how easily that ache gets twisted. In a political and religious landscape like ours, nostalgia often becomes a shield against change, or worse, a weapon against others.
Your data makes that plain. It’s not really about denominations—it’s about partisanship. That’s the part that should unsettle all of us. Catholics, evangelicals, mainline Protestants—once you account for political identity, the patterns around immigration and gender identity are disturbingly aligned.
I’m a Catholic who believes in justice, inclusion, and the full dignity of every person. What you’ve shown here is a challenge for all of us who want faith to be a force for good in public life.
We don’t need to go back. We need to go deeper. Thanks for giving us the data—and the ache—to reflect on that.
These graphs don’t elucidate the complexity of the immigration issue. I have yet to meet anyone who says they are against immigration per se. It’s that it’s too many and too fast exceeding even the last height of inflow which was in 1915. The volume of people coming in creates incredible disruption in come communities especially urban. Money gets shifted to address refugee needs versus what the local community. Today in Massachusetts $5 million is being appropriated to offer legal assistance to refugees but is being taken away from local indigent poor who are accused of crimes, as one example. Data can only take you so far in understanding causality and nuances.
Yes -- though it's hard to do. I think the best we can see here is a referendum on the current state of immigration.
I have an elderly uncle -- a devout conservative Midwestern Baptist -- who watches Fox News all day long. I'm sure he would answer "Worse" on the immigration question. As would I, to be clear.
But my uncle's wife is from Honduras! He is of course not opposed to all immigration. He met her on a mission trip. She was part of the local church they were working alongside. He tells me they had major hassles getting her visa approved; for a time he wasn't sure if they would ever get to be together.
I'm guessing that for a lot of people, especially on the left, the word that comes to mind here is "hypocrisy." Immigration for me, but not for thee.
But the word that comes to my mind is "anarcho-tyranny." I don't think my uncle knows that word, but when he describes his beef with the immigration regime as he understands it, that's how I would summarize it.
"We have all these rules, but they only enforce them on good, law-abiding, churchgoing people like my wife. Meanwhile millions just walk cross the border with impunity, unvetted, and get to live and work here and access welfare."
In recent years, the USA has absorbed a third of the entire population of Honduras not to mention myriad other countries in South America….
I want to gently push back on the claim that the U.S. has "absorbed a third of the entire population of Honduras" in recent years, along with people from “myriad other countries in South America.”
Here’s what the numbers actually show:
Honduras has a population of about 10.5 million.
Roughly 1 million Hondurans live in the U.S.—about 10%, not one-third.
And that migration didn’t all happen “in recent years”—it’s been building over several decades, with spikes during times of political crisis, violence, and natural disasters.
Also worth noting: Honduras is in Central America, not South America. Most recent migration from South America comes from places like Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil, and those numbers are smaller in comparison.
It’s totally valid to talk about the scale and impact of immigration, but we owe it to ourselves—and each other—to start from accurate, grounded facts. Misinformation only fuels fear and division.
Happy to share sources if that’s helpful.
In recent years, the USA has absorbed a third of the entire population of Honduras not to mention myriad other countries in South America….
In recent years, the USA has absorbed a third of the entire population of Honduras not to mention myriad other countries in South America….
I agree this doesn’t address the nuance. I could be making a cynical read- do you think a significant number of the people responding to this survey are making these nuances?
Please define what you mean my Evangelical...I'm a bit confused. You stated that you have placed the LCMS in that category, yet I, a long time member of that denomination, do not, in any way, consider myself a part of that group. Thanks,
I’m pretty fascinated by this data. My priors before reading this piece would have pinned the GOP data on the acceptance of transgendered people in society pretty correctly, but I would’ve had the data in a much higher favorability for immigration than portrayed here.
"For what it’s worth, I don’t think I ever see progressive accounts on social media post pictures from the 1950s and 1960s of “idyllic America” - it’s just the Republicans doing that. Which, to me, speaks volumes about what Republicans think about the past compared to Democrats."
As noted below, Dems have their own nostalgia problem, it's just the era they pine for is Obama first term or COVID-era lockdowns. Cf with the constant refrain in Trump 45 of "THIS IS NOT NORMAL!"; this implies a change from an established norm. There's aslo a lot of decrying of a loss of civility and tone in Washington, which is pretty amusing to those of who remember the constant refrain of BUSH=HITLER in the early 2000s. Both sides have their windows for nostalgia for a world that doesn't exist anymore.
Thank you for sharing your heart-felt article about your closed church. I'm glad you've found a different way to answer your calling.
Re the data today: Can you clarify which denominations you consider as Mainline and which you consider as Evangelical in your charts and graphs? For example, I'm never really sure if the Assembly of Gods is deemed mainline or Evangelical. Same with Baptist excepting Southern Baptist. (Or maybe Southern Baptist is not Evangelical but I always thought they are due to their comparatively more conservative views.)
Interestingly, though, I find progressives to be more alarmed by technological changes than Republicans are. Almost all of the alarm bells I see raised about AI are coming from Democrats.
"Almost all of the alarm bells I see raised about AI are coming from Democrats."
This feels mostly due to Dems being anti-Tech (as in the Tech industry) right now for a lot of complicated reasons, in fairness. I don't know how much is organically derived from first principles vice in a reaction to a perceived hostile power center.
Although there's another interesting twist I've noticed: right now it's the Dems that are the "conservative" party in politics (in the sense that they seek to return to/prevent the collapse of norms and mores, only the era they long to RETVRN to is basically first-term Obama).
Good data, not so good results. We are still a long way from being an accepting society. Thanks.
It is discouraging to see how much more influential politics are than religion. Evangelicals SAY the Bible is their authority, but to have nearly equal views of transgender and immigration shows that many are ignorant or indifferent to the Bible. Desperate people coming here illegally is not the same as encouraging the drugging and mutilation of confused men and women. This is not just an evangelical problem, but the other Christian traditions believe in other authorities outside of the Bible. I expect more from evangelicals.