Does Religion Impact Support for the Death Penalty?
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below.
In late September of 2024, there were a number of news stories surrounding the planned execution of Marcellus Williams by the state of Missouri. Williams had been tried, convicted and sentenced to death for murdering Lisha Gayle in suburban St. Louis in 1998. As the date of Williams’ lethal injection drew near, criticism of the entire process grew on several fronts. One was that the prosecutor who argued the case against the defendant, “now admitted they were wrong and zealously fought to undo the conviction and save Mr. Williams’ life.” There were a number of issues with the case including some uncertainty about the DNA evidence that was discussed at the trial.
The other was the simple fact that the family of the victim did not want to see the state execute Marcellus Williams. In their petition to commute his sentence, they wrote, “The family defines closure as Marcellus being allowed to live. Marcellus’ execution is not necessary.” On September 24, the Supreme Court of the United States refused to stay the execution, with the court breaking down across their typical ideological lines. In his final statement, Williams wrote, “All Praise Be to Allah in Every Situation!!!”
The use of capital punishment is certainly a hotly discussed topic, and it’s important to look at some of the numbers related to the practice. The Associated Press reports that:
In 2023, there were 24 executions in the United States.
That same year, 21 new people were sentenced to death.
In the last nine years, there’s never been more than thirty people who were executed by the state in any given year.
Five states used capital punishment in 2023: Texas, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Alabama.
There have been 198 death row exonerations since 1975.
29 states have either abolished the death penalty or paused executions.
A week before Marcellus Williams faced lethal injection, 69 faith leaders united in a call for clemency from the state’s governor. They wrote that, “We are advocating for life without parole and that Marcellus will remain in prison, with the message that his life can remain open to redemption, mercy, and the healing power of God and that he will continue to serve the Muslim community.”
Liberals Have Won the Culture War
Anyone remember Pat Buchanan? He was a far-right conservative who ran an insurgent campaign against George H.W. Bush for the Republican nomination in 1992. When Bush announced his desire to run for a second term, it was assumed that he would have no real challenger in his own party. But Buchanan was a bomb thrower and excoriated Bush for being too moder…
This case got me thinking about the issue of capital punishment and if the public has shifted their view of the practice over the last forty years. The Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA), houses the General Social Survey. That instrument has been asking about capital punishment with regularity since 1974. The question is simply, “Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder?”
Let me start by showing the trend lines in the entire sample then among Republicans and Democrats. We will move on to religious groups a little later.
Among the general public, there has always been majority support for the death penalty. In 1974, two-thirds of the sample believed that convicted murderers should be subject to the death penalty. Support clearly rose from there and peaked from the early 1980s through the early 1990s when nearly 80% of the sample were in favor. From that point forward, support has somewhat eroded. In 2021, just 56% of the sample favored capital punishment, but that number bumped back up to 62% in the 2022 data.
There’s a clear partisan divide on this issue. Republicans have always been more supportive of the death penalty, but the gap wasn’t huge in the 1970s and 1980s. For instance, in the mid-1980s, about 85% of Republicans supported capital punishment compared to 75% of Democrats. However, the difference in the views of the two major parties has widened significantly. In the 2022 data, 81% of Republicans were in favor compared to just 43% of Democrats. It’s interesting to note that even a majority of Democrats favored the death penalty as recently as 2014.
What happens when the sample is broken down into major religious traditions? There are some interesting findings related to support for capital punishment.
Evangelical Christians don’t show a lot of variation over time. In the 1970s, about 70% of them supported capital punishment. That did rise during the next decade or so, hitting a peak around 1995 at 85%. However, support has slid since then. Today, among evangelicals, I think it’s fair to say that support for the death penalty looks very similar to the statistics from the 1970s.
Is there a lot of variation when breaking down evangelicals by church attendance?
I think it’s fair to say there’s a bit of a difference between high-attending and low-attending evangelicals. It’s notable that in the early 1970s, there was no difference at all in support for capital punishment among evangelicals by church attendance. It was just about 70% for all groups. That didn’t last long. By 1990, low-attending evangelicals were noticeably more supportive of capital punishment compared to those who attended more regularly, creating about a five-point gap.
In the last twenty years or so, there’s been a slight decline in support for capital punishment among low-attending evangelicals, but it’s still robust—about 80%. Among those who attend more frequently, the decline has been larger. While support was above 75% even through 2000, today it’s much more accurate to say that 60-65% of active evangelicals support capital punishment.
Another group I wanted to highlight is Roman Catholics. While support among evangelicals and mainline Protestants is essentially the same in 2022 as in 1974, that’s certainly not the case among Catholics in the GSS. In the 1974 data, about three-quarters of them believed that a convicted murderer should face the death penalty. That percentage stayed high through the early 1990s, but then it began to drop. By 2005, it was below 65%, and in recent years it has been closer to 60%. That’s a decline of about 13 points from the start of the time series.
Cafeteria Catholicism?
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below.
I wanted to look behind the curtain a little bit among Catholics and try and figure out why their support for capital punishment declined, though. The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops makes their position plain on this topic, “[T]he death penalty is inadmissible because it is an attack on the inviolability and dignity of the person.” Pope John Paul II made statements in opposition to capital punishment, which were echoed by Pope Benedict XVI and Pope Francis stated clearly, “the death penalty is inadmissible” in 2018.
Perhaps attending Mass more often is a key predictor of lower support for the death penalty among rank-and-file Roman Catholics.
That’s exactly what appears in the data. When the sample of Catholics is broken down into four attendance categories, ranging from “never/seldom” to “nearly every week,” there’s a huge difference in views on capital punishment. Among Catholics who attend once a year or less, there’s still robust support for the death penalty. In the 1970s, about 75% of low-attending Catholics supported capital punishment, and that level remained through 2000. It only began to decline in the last twenty years, and even today about two-thirds of these Catholics support capital punishment.
For Catholics who attend nearly every week or more, it’s a much different story. Even in the 1970s, only 70% of high-attending Catholics supported capital punishment. It stayed at that level through 1990 but then started dropping quickly. By 2002, it was down to 60%, and a decade later it was ten points lower than that. In the most recent data, just 40% of weekly-attending Catholics were supportive of the death penalty. That’s twenty points lower than the general public.
I wanted to take that Catholic analysis one step further. Is Mass attendance having a real impact on views of capital punishment even when controlling for political ideology? I restricted the sample to Catholics who reported attending Mass at least once a month and divided the sample into liberals, moderates, and conservatives.
It’s fair to say that conservative Catholics have always been more supportive of the death penalty than liberal ones. In the late 1980s, the gap between the groups was fairly small—less than eight percentage points. But 1990 looks like a real inflection point. The trend lines among active Roman Catholics all began to track downward. By 2000, 70% of conservative Catholics were in favor of capital punishment compared to 55% of liberals. In the most recent data, among conservative Catholics who regularly attend Mass, just 55% favor the death penalty for convicted murderers. For liberal Catholics, it’s about 40%.
To me, this is compelling evidence that Catholicism has had a measurable impact on views of capital punishment. A conservative Catholic who attends Mass regularly is about 12-15 points less supportive of the death penalty than evangelicals or mainline Protestants. That’s remarkable, and it’s one instance where I feel fairly confident in saying that religion matters.
I’ve been known to say that politics is the master identity recently—people pick their religion based on their politics, not their candidate based on their theology. Yet in this situation, it does appear that the Church’s teachings on this one specific issue have filtered down into the pews and really changed how the average Catholic thinks about the death penalty.
Code for this post can be found here.
What's curious about the argument that Catholicism is making the difference is that the gap between frequent and non-attenders is roughly as large in evangelicalism. And yet (as an evangelical) I can say that evangelicalism doesn't have NEARLY the degree of anti-death-penalty advocacy that Catholicism does. To the point that I'm not aware of a major theologically conservative Protestant figure, living or dead, that is vocally anti-death-penalty, while the Pope himself is vocally anti-death-penalty.
So where is the attendance gap in evangelical death penalty support coming from? One theory: there seems to be a strong Southern effect when it comes to the death penalty. I live in the South, and in my experience the death penalty is pretty uncontroversial here even among people that I'd consider centrists or swing voters. So I wonder how much of what we're seeing is a Southern effect, where seldom-attending evangelicals are disproportionately concentrated in the South.
But I would honestly suspect the reverse of this Southern effect for Catholics: self-identified Catholic seldom-attenders are rarer in the South, because weakly-attached Catholics here are more likely to ditch Catholic identity entirely.
Thank you again for this interesting analysis, Ryan.
I don't know if this data set would have enough data to answer this question, but I'm curious about whether there are differences in opinions on the death penalty among converts to Christian religions, especially to Catholicism.
At least in the internet circles I run in (*with all the biases that implies), there's increasing chatter about moving from Protestant churches perceived as being too wishy-washy and/or "woke" to more traditional denominations like Catholicism and Orthodoxy. I also observe that converts tend to know doctrine way better than those raised in the faith. They also may be more likely to endorse particular doctrinal positions than those raised in the faith, because support for those doctrinal positions was why they wanted to convert in the first place.* Now, I don't think we've seen a wave of Catholic conversions in the USA over the past two decades, but it would be interesting to know whether Catholic converts are even more anti-death penalty than their cradle Catholic co-parishioners.
*Full disclosure and biases: I am in the process of converting to Catholicism after having been raised protestant, and the Church's position on things like the death penalty are one of the reasons why.