Ryan, you write, "And like I wrote earlier, if there’s some enthusiasm for this macro-level analysis, I plan on getting deep into the weeds of the problems facing many of these parishes."
So, this is me expressing my enthusiasm for this additional analysis as a paid subscriber, please and thank you.
Analysis of the local Catholic parishes is enabled by meticulous record keeping and a centralized decision making process. The decline of priests and their ages needs to be teased out a bit. Not all priests, and certainly not all Rabbis, seek positions in congregations. The Catholic world operates universities that have some very distinguished priests serving as professors. They operate, or at least sponsor, a hospital system that requires chaplains, as does the US military and non-Catholic hospitals. While bishops can give employment assignments within limits, they cannot create a pipeline to replenish retiring clergy. This challenge is not unique to Catholics.
What the data suggests is inherent in many organizations, religious and beyond. They generate leaders who assess where they are now, make some assumptions of where their future will lead, make provisions for a foreseeable future which are mostly right, but fail to accept that trends are not forever, nor are they independent of other regional trends. We do pretty well projecting five years ahead, much less well projecting 20 years ahead.
Ryan....Outstanding article. I am really looking froward to seeing the next level data. It could be a lens into what is happening at the local level across the US in numerous denominations.
Interestingly, I was trying to do some analysis like this with TEC, but ran into some dead ends. Even though attendance & membership in TEC has dramatically declined, the bureaucracy & infrastructure at the national & Diocesan level has essentially stayed the same. And looking at CPG pension data, they seem flush with money.
So my question is "is the infrastructure a jobs program?" I would love a McKinsey & Co study done and I would bet they could easily cut overhead costs by 50% without interruption to services the overhead provides......maybe a chunk of the excess money & property spent on overhead would be better used for the poor. Just sayin.
Thank you very much for this article. As a Catholic in the "D", I've perused a lot of those PDF files, mostly for my own region and nearest parishes. It is great how much information transparency the archdiocese is doing here; it's a real model for other dioceses that are on a similar path.
I look forward to future articles and what more insights can be gleaned from the data.
Interesting article and I look forward to others. An historical time for the RC Church in the US. And the Archdiocese of Detroit is not an outlier. Simultaneously the Archdiocese of Dubuque and the St. Cloud Diocese (Minnesota) are making similar cutbacks, among others.
I cannot see how the RC Church can pull out of this dive, simply because of the increasing lack of priests. And the burnout of current priests! As families leave the RC Church they take with them their young sons who might have been inspired to seek the priesthood as a vocation. And considering the irreplaceable centrality of the priest in Catholic faith and practice, they've painted themselves into the proverbial corner.
I had a business friend get hired to be on staff at a megachurch that was planning to do a building expansion. My friend warned "you can grow bigger, but you can't get smaller", which is basically what you point out. If not enough people show up to fill the space, it's really hard to keep the doors open.
I've seen how megachurches have shifted more and more to multi-site models over the last two decades, and I wonder if this is the reason. If they happen to shrink, they can close a few campuses instead of having to figure out what to do with one big building.
Regardless, I love the analysis and would appreciate more of the same!
Have you interacted with Shea and Hitzhusen's "From Christendom to Apostolic Mission"? They aren't doing statistical work, and they aren't as interested in the "why" people are leaving, they are more interested in the "how" churches need to respond in order to be successful and how networks and movements need to respond in order to shape what comes next. I did some AI comparison of your work to theirs and there is quite a bit of agreement in your assessments.
Subscribed for this kind of analysis. A relative of mine was ordained for one of these types of archdioceses recently and, while I do believe in the grace conferred by the sacrament, I have enough sociological self-awareness to be very concerned about the kind of storm he might be sailing into (declining numbers, increased demands, fewer resources to support the priests who are left, etc.).
If NorthRidge would publish their stats, it would make an interesting contrast for the Detroit Metro. Their model seemed to break with COVID. Branch campuses with televised worship had to pivot because you could get the same experience more comfortably at home.
Do you get a sense of how the data disclosure is helping membership process the next steps? My sense from locals is that parishes don't trust the numbers.
I just started with an ELCA congregation in Garden City as a lay minister. Your look at this data might help us.
Excellent post, and I look forward to more. I will also praise the Archbishop for his seriousness and transparency, and I hope if this post makes the rounds on social media, it will not be perceived as an attack or singling out. Many areas of the country are facing similar or even worse problems: the Detroit archdiocese just has the courage to lay it all out.
Excellent posting. I wonder if what is going on reflects both negative population growth in the US once you dramtically decrease immigration together with people feeling less of a need to go to religious services. What you obsserve is something that is happening to synagogues as well. My former congregation when I lived in Southern California is in the process of selling their current building and relocating to a smaller one. My current congregation in Portland OR after a year review decided to stay and look toward other solutions. Tney currently lease a portion of the building as a day care center.
I wonder if some of this is reflected in shifts of church architectural styles. Once churches were designed for magnificence. I have seen jokes that describe newwer churhes as resembling a drive up bank. And I have seen churches using rented warehouse space and stip malls.
Thank you for another fascinating post. I was surprised to learn that the archdiocese still had such a large infrastructure. From a quality management perspective, in turning things around, would it help to distinguish between outcomes (souls saved) and outputs?
As you reinforce in your work, Catholics are not the only ones with an outcome challenge. And even for those who consider themselves Christians, the Barna surveys identify that only around 4% have a biblical worldview.
The So What? The final judgment is pass (heaven) or fail (hell). Catholics believe in a Purgatory for those souls that have more work to do.
What's it take to be saved, and why is that important? Given the decline in belief across all denominations, can it be concluded that the right message is not being communicated? And what message would be perceived as immediately relevant?
A few ideas on a message below - Thoughts?
1. Jesus is the one deity who acknowledged he was the Son of God and proved it through his life, death, and resurrection and continued influence in the world. Jesus stated that "No one comes to the Father except through me."
2. God is love. Love is an action that involves willing the good of others in thoughts, words, and actions. The more needs that are met (a smile, a kind word, a helpful hand, providing exceptional products or services (including government services) the less harm is caused as a result of unmet needs (less crime, fewer victims). This results in an upward trend in "things gone right" and a downward trend in "things gone wrong.
3. The belief in Christ is reinforced through actions that benefit others.
4. The Holy Spirit is the voice of your conscience that provides you with feedback on your actions.
5. Actions speak much louder than words.
6. Sharing your personal story alongside your actions can effectively communicate the message of the gospel to others.
7. From a quality management perspective, it's been proven scientifically (Taguchi Loss Function) that the more needs that are met, the less harm that is caused to the individual and society.
8. Pascal offers a supporting argument: What do you have to lose? "If God does exist, the believer stands to gain immeasurably, as represented for example by an eternity in Heaven in Abrahamic tradition, while simultaneously avoiding boundless losses associated with an eternity in Hell."
9. And for committed non-believers, the Book of Revelation identifies that many will get to experience Hell on Earth, which may help change some minds.
10. And politically, societies embracing socialism and communism, where the "State" (man) vs God provides the standard of perfection, provide daily feedback on the beliefs that provide the best results.
Ryan, you write, "And like I wrote earlier, if there’s some enthusiasm for this macro-level analysis, I plan on getting deep into the weeds of the problems facing many of these parishes."
So, this is me expressing my enthusiasm for this additional analysis as a paid subscriber, please and thank you.
I second that. I enjoy these details.
The Cincinnati Archdiocese has posted similar data following consolidation at https://pathway.catholicaoc.org/parish-vitality-report/year-in-review/
Oh, wow. This may turn into a much bigger project.
Analysis of the local Catholic parishes is enabled by meticulous record keeping and a centralized decision making process. The decline of priests and their ages needs to be teased out a bit. Not all priests, and certainly not all Rabbis, seek positions in congregations. The Catholic world operates universities that have some very distinguished priests serving as professors. They operate, or at least sponsor, a hospital system that requires chaplains, as does the US military and non-Catholic hospitals. While bishops can give employment assignments within limits, they cannot create a pipeline to replenish retiring clergy. This challenge is not unique to Catholics.
What the data suggests is inherent in many organizations, religious and beyond. They generate leaders who assess where they are now, make some assumptions of where their future will lead, make provisions for a foreseeable future which are mostly right, but fail to accept that trends are not forever, nor are they independent of other regional trends. We do pretty well projecting five years ahead, much less well projecting 20 years ahead.
I appreciate how transparent the RC church is with all of the changes going on.
Ryan....Outstanding article. I am really looking froward to seeing the next level data. It could be a lens into what is happening at the local level across the US in numerous denominations.
Interestingly, I was trying to do some analysis like this with TEC, but ran into some dead ends. Even though attendance & membership in TEC has dramatically declined, the bureaucracy & infrastructure at the national & Diocesan level has essentially stayed the same. And looking at CPG pension data, they seem flush with money.
So my question is "is the infrastructure a jobs program?" I would love a McKinsey & Co study done and I would bet they could easily cut overhead costs by 50% without interruption to services the overhead provides......maybe a chunk of the excess money & property spent on overhead would be better used for the poor. Just sayin.
Great post, nothing to add besides kudos.
Thank you very much for this article. As a Catholic in the "D", I've perused a lot of those PDF files, mostly for my own region and nearest parishes. It is great how much information transparency the archdiocese is doing here; it's a real model for other dioceses that are on a similar path.
I look forward to future articles and what more insights can be gleaned from the data.
Interesting article and I look forward to others. An historical time for the RC Church in the US. And the Archdiocese of Detroit is not an outlier. Simultaneously the Archdiocese of Dubuque and the St. Cloud Diocese (Minnesota) are making similar cutbacks, among others.
I cannot see how the RC Church can pull out of this dive, simply because of the increasing lack of priests. And the burnout of current priests! As families leave the RC Church they take with them their young sons who might have been inspired to seek the priesthood as a vocation. And considering the irreplaceable centrality of the priest in Catholic faith and practice, they've painted themselves into the proverbial corner.
Very interesting times.
They could stop suppressing diocesan Latin Masses. It's not a "one neat trick" but it would certainly help.
Please take a deep dive. Take as long as you need. We'll be patient. And eager to read.
I had a business friend get hired to be on staff at a megachurch that was planning to do a building expansion. My friend warned "you can grow bigger, but you can't get smaller", which is basically what you point out. If not enough people show up to fill the space, it's really hard to keep the doors open.
I've seen how megachurches have shifted more and more to multi-site models over the last two decades, and I wonder if this is the reason. If they happen to shrink, they can close a few campuses instead of having to figure out what to do with one big building.
Regardless, I love the analysis and would appreciate more of the same!
Have you interacted with Shea and Hitzhusen's "From Christendom to Apostolic Mission"? They aren't doing statistical work, and they aren't as interested in the "why" people are leaving, they are more interested in the "how" churches need to respond in order to be successful and how networks and movements need to respond in order to shape what comes next. I did some AI comparison of your work to theirs and there is quite a bit of agreement in your assessments.
Subscribed for this kind of analysis. A relative of mine was ordained for one of these types of archdioceses recently and, while I do believe in the grace conferred by the sacrament, I have enough sociological self-awareness to be very concerned about the kind of storm he might be sailing into (declining numbers, increased demands, fewer resources to support the priests who are left, etc.).
"Think of Catholic membership like a pipeline."
This very much applies to the Catholic school system and the declining enrollment across the nation. This pipeline is also constricting.
If NorthRidge would publish their stats, it would make an interesting contrast for the Detroit Metro. Their model seemed to break with COVID. Branch campuses with televised worship had to pivot because you could get the same experience more comfortably at home.
Do you get a sense of how the data disclosure is helping membership process the next steps? My sense from locals is that parishes don't trust the numbers.
I just started with an ELCA congregation in Garden City as a lay minister. Your look at this data might help us.
Excellent post, and I look forward to more. I will also praise the Archbishop for his seriousness and transparency, and I hope if this post makes the rounds on social media, it will not be perceived as an attack or singling out. Many areas of the country are facing similar or even worse problems: the Detroit archdiocese just has the courage to lay it all out.
Excellent posting. I wonder if what is going on reflects both negative population growth in the US once you dramtically decrease immigration together with people feeling less of a need to go to religious services. What you obsserve is something that is happening to synagogues as well. My former congregation when I lived in Southern California is in the process of selling their current building and relocating to a smaller one. My current congregation in Portland OR after a year review decided to stay and look toward other solutions. Tney currently lease a portion of the building as a day care center.
I wonder if some of this is reflected in shifts of church architectural styles. Once churches were designed for magnificence. I have seen jokes that describe newwer churhes as resembling a drive up bank. And I have seen churches using rented warehouse space and stip malls.
Thank you for another fascinating post. I was surprised to learn that the archdiocese still had such a large infrastructure. From a quality management perspective, in turning things around, would it help to distinguish between outcomes (souls saved) and outputs?
As you reinforce in your work, Catholics are not the only ones with an outcome challenge. And even for those who consider themselves Christians, the Barna surveys identify that only around 4% have a biblical worldview.
The So What? The final judgment is pass (heaven) or fail (hell). Catholics believe in a Purgatory for those souls that have more work to do.
What's it take to be saved, and why is that important? Given the decline in belief across all denominations, can it be concluded that the right message is not being communicated? And what message would be perceived as immediately relevant?
A few ideas on a message below - Thoughts?
1. Jesus is the one deity who acknowledged he was the Son of God and proved it through his life, death, and resurrection and continued influence in the world. Jesus stated that "No one comes to the Father except through me."
2. God is love. Love is an action that involves willing the good of others in thoughts, words, and actions. The more needs that are met (a smile, a kind word, a helpful hand, providing exceptional products or services (including government services) the less harm is caused as a result of unmet needs (less crime, fewer victims). This results in an upward trend in "things gone right" and a downward trend in "things gone wrong.
3. The belief in Christ is reinforced through actions that benefit others.
4. The Holy Spirit is the voice of your conscience that provides you with feedback on your actions.
5. Actions speak much louder than words.
6. Sharing your personal story alongside your actions can effectively communicate the message of the gospel to others.
7. From a quality management perspective, it's been proven scientifically (Taguchi Loss Function) that the more needs that are met, the less harm that is caused to the individual and society.
8. Pascal offers a supporting argument: What do you have to lose? "If God does exist, the believer stands to gain immeasurably, as represented for example by an eternity in Heaven in Abrahamic tradition, while simultaneously avoiding boundless losses associated with an eternity in Hell."
9. And for committed non-believers, the Book of Revelation identifies that many will get to experience Hell on Earth, which may help change some minds.
10. And politically, societies embracing socialism and communism, where the "State" (man) vs God provides the standard of perfection, provide daily feedback on the beliefs that provide the best results.