Hi, this is well written and I found the drop offs in hi-trust in religion by age cohort to be interesting, thanks for compiling the data. But the institutions you're referring to at the end aren’t the ones that built America; they’re relatively new constructs, mostly centralized and consolidated within the past fifty years. Many of the key institutions that did build America, such as genuinely decentralized and publicly accessible mass-member parties, robust state and city governments with real power, and a scientific ecosystem that was diffuse, experimental, and independent before World War II, among others, either no longer exist or have been transformed beyond recognition. What you’re observing isn’t just a generic loss of faith in “institutions” but a recognition that what replaced the old structures is fundamentally different in nature, worse in performance, and corrupt to its core. The centralized exclusionary membership parties that masquerade as political representation today were never part of the original design; the current form of "science" as a bureaucratic and industrialized apparatus really only took shape in the late 1970s, and state and city governments have been rendered largely ineffectual, unable to act as real counterweights to the national center. The growing distrust isn’t a rejection of institutions in general, it’s a rejection of the new centralized order, which has proven itself corrupt, unaccountable, and incapable of producing the broad-based prosperity and participatory governance that once existed. The real tragedy is that most people don’t realize just how much was lost in the process.
Religion becoming less trusted than other institutions strikes me as support for Aaron Renn's Negative World thesis.
Though I can't help but notice that among evangelicals, trust seems to be flat-to-positive since 1990 or so. The "Great Deal" line is flattish while the "Some" line has increased mostly at the expense of "Hardly Any".
There is Congress, which we despise, and there is my Congressman who we re-elect. There are greedy doctors, and there is my doctor who looks out for me. There are shady journalists and there is Fox or MSNBC which maintains my echo chamber. I suspect that for people affiliated with a religion, they rank their higher. For defectors for cause, whether Nones or DeChurched, the harm they experienced is generalized to all religions.
One thing that Ryan might be able to do from the GSS, though a bit labor intensive, would be to reconstruct the graphs not by their religion but by how often the people attend worship. People who go each week would be more satisfied than people who hardly ever go. There is belonging, which requires little trust, believing where faithful and cynics mingle, and behavior where what you really think is consistently expressed.
I'll be honest that when I hear the phrase "organized religion", my first instinct isn't to think of my own church -- a midsized community nondenominational church -- towards which my feelings are positive, but instead I think of the Mainlines in which I grew up (towards which my feelings are generally negative) and Roman Catholicism (towards which my feelings are mixed and complicated). I wonder to what degree this is generational.
And as for attendance, I think the percentage of non-attenders has increased within each of these groups, which is surely putting downward pressure on the within-group numbers.
Religions aren't entitled to respect or trust. People have figured out that religions are no different than anything else, where respect and trust must be earned, not simply demanded. And religons simply haven't earned it.
The GSS data reflecting long-term loss of confidence (or trust) in religion generally tracks the 50-year decline of the Episcopal Church and several other mainlines, a continuous decline so severe, that statistically, they will cease being functioning national denominations in a couple of decades or so. I've found no data that sheds bright light on why this decline is taking place, while the nondenominationals grow like weeds.
There's a truckload of opinion and speculation about it, but no reliable data. Hopefully, Ryan can find some reliable data that establishes specific causes of such a calamity in the making.
Just the thought of losing the mainlines is dreadful for the future of our country. There are bound to be specific reasons for the problem, but it can't be fixed until the cause is known in clear and uncertain terms
I think there are a lot of reasons for the decline of the mainlines, but the biggest one that's generally underdiscussed is that IIRC the 1970s were roughly when marrying outside your denomination started gaining more social acceptance -- and mainline churches were more often than not the losers when newly-married couples sat down and said "so what church do we go to, anyway?" I think that's explained at least a bit by both evangelicals and non-Protestant religions (Catholics + non-Christian faiths) having considerably more cultural investment in their religion (if not attachment to the actual religion in the case of Catholics.)
My grandparents were Methodists and all three of their daughters were. Of their five grandchildren, though, I'm the only one who still is even though all of us were raised in the church -- three cousins drifted off into nondenominational-land and my brother is UU.
An interesting point, Thomas, that I had not thought about. My personal experience, however, was the opposite. I left the Baptist Church where my grandfather was a pastor and joined my wife's Episcopal Church to raise my children with a consistent biblical teaching and faith in God. That was more than 60 years ago and I've stuck with it. But it's been a tough slog. I like my local Episcopal church, but the national leadership has sorely tried my patience, especially the last two decades with its determination to force "normalization" of LGBTQ persons upon the lay congregations. Gay ordinations of priests and bishops, promotion of them to positions of leadership through DEI, Social Justice, etc. Plus pushing a whole laundry-list of progressive cultural/political issues that most people do not support as indicated by the recent election. The result of this activism has been skism, division, defection and loss of half the church's national membership since the start of this century. The decline appears to be irreversible. Unfortunately, other mainline denominations, including your Methodists, have followed a similar course. In my view, the problem lies with weak and incompetent leadership accross the board. I see no other reasons for the failure of these valuable institutions in our country.
And yes, this last election confirmed the evil of Christianity. And that my own judgement about how much they hate peoples for how they are born and how much they lack any positive qualities. They are destroyers. They are dividers. They are mean evil people who will stop at nothing to hurt others and support hitler because they worship hitler. They always said it was me who did for being autistic. But they clearly are the ones who are hitler. I never promoted killing your parents or having the government kill you. But Christians have done that to me. Because they reject the golden rule. They reject society. They reject equality. They reject love. They even reject providing brail to the blind because they only have hate in their hearts. And you have proven you believe in the religion of hate.
When I was a child I did not understand how I could be so hated for just being myself. Its incomprehensible that people reject all that was being american and a good citizen like not wishing death on people for how they were born. But they have been doing it a long time and they violate everything I know about being a good loving human because they are heartless mass murderers and they raise heartless mass murderers. And people should be judged for their actions that they do with such intent. They know it will kill people.
You are against people jesus said you should love too. And I know based on how you reject accessibility (because that’s apart of DEI) and you reject women and think we are lesser and should be discriminated against . And you reject our health. And you reject my love because you are a horrible hater who hates American values of liberty and justice for all and you want that to be reserved for only your family and you want them to get promotions and opportunities they do not deserve. Trump put people in charge who arent just not qualified, but are anti qualified. They are against education for the disabled like me. But also just against education. They are against life itself. They don’t love their neighbors. They only hate. And I don’t understand why.
All I ever did was write poetry, read at the library, make music, and love. I do not have any institutional power.
Im on disability and im watching service go away. The only therapist that was ever good to me was Jewish and not religious. Its not a belief in god that teaches hatred. My friends are Jewish or atheist. One is a Lutheran who doesn’t go to church cause its mean.
I volunteer. I pick up trash around the homeless shelter. I married my first kiss. And never been with others willingly… some people thought they could “fix” my interest in a highly feminine person. And you can’t because I know what love is. Someone who cares for me no matter what. And loves me more than your god ever ever could.
I love film. I think its america’s greatest love and achievement to make so many. And the conservative hates what I love most because it includes everyone and everything in topic. And it isn’t so narrow as them.
Autistics you know, we have a strong sense of justice. A I feel a strong sense of justice. And a strong sense for a desire for autonomy. And I know when Im being hated by the majority of people. And you are right. And I have always known it because people are bent on hating. I was raised to care for the elderly, people more disabled than me, Im the oldest of 10 or 13 kids. Depending on how you count. And I had that traditional oldest sister role. And the fact is? I was never truly going to match your ideals…. Because I was going to fall in love. And dedicate myself self to it. I loved animals, Brazil, Japan, and fashion. I loved the movies. I loved vampires. I loved my pet rats. Little smart misunderstood creatures so packed with loving everyone in such a small short life. Eats anything we do. Doesn’t usually form group hates unless its sick.
Most people don’t support my equality. Most people dont support my liberty. Most people are not american in america in my view. These were core values I took from the pledge and the constitution. And they want the opposite of Americas promise because they hate me. And they hate my partner. And they want us gone forever because they hate love. And they hate everything I love. They hate everything I care about. And they always have. And they want to take what little I did get, like a segregated abusive education and just say no education at all as if it was education that taught me to feel and bleed like a human and they are so jealous of my sensitivity. They can’t have my sensitivity because they are sociopaths.
I learned to read at the library. I learned to love at the library. The library is liberty and I know the conservative wants to take it away from me because their religion cannot stand different and the library allows people who are different to learn to read and learn. And school doesn’t for us. Which is why they wanted me stuck. And well barring the classroom where I eventually found my place in Video Production when allowed to take mainstream classes at last, the library is how I maintained the ability that attempted to be stolen from me. I couldn’t make up for the math deficiency and neither could my partner… but we could take to reading. And my desire to make the world a better place and more equal place with more equal opportunities id hated. It was just so unfair to be locked in a dark closet and taught nothing day after day. It wasn’t school that taught me love that you hate. My faith in the pledge of allegiance is the core. My knowing how to read the 1st 8th 9th (considered dead weight but I see unexplored value in it as an autistic female deprived of the education I wanted) and 14th amendment is the other.
I feel it fully and to my core what my ideal america is. And it isn’t one that thinks im worthless to hire anywhere or worthless to educate making it hard to get the hiring. Im intelligent, it was unfair. Im working hard to make up what I can. Im doing my best….
But the majority of america is in my way. And in the way of the america we that should be. They don’t think we can share in the light, equality would create. And I just don’t understand. I can’t. It goes against everything.
I don’t trust religion because they are against me and my very existence as both autistic and gay and married to someone trans and gay.
They promote inequality and discrimination against persons. And they promote disgusting beliefs that causes terrible harm on anyone they are around and I don’t think they should be around children because they are abusive and mean and they teach their children to be racist, sexist, homophobic, and bigoted and judgmental to the disabled. And they are just all around bad people who have actively chosen hate. And they dont know what love is, they are sociopathic and they lack any positive contribution. They are the reason everything in america is bad and is made worse. They destroyed any hope or joy in an america that lives up to its promise of liberty and justice for all. And for that? I hate them for what they have done.
They could choose love at any time but they wont. Because they only know and teach hate. I only hate peoples who have chosen to willfully hate me and teach and pass on that hatred. At any point they can change and they wont.
They outright say they want to kill our parents in my neighborhood and want the government to kill us. They are bad people.
I think it depends on how you define and apply the word "trust." Do I trust the leadership of my church to make good decisions in the best interests of the majority of the members? Certainly not.
Do I trust the leadership to make decisions that I agree with and support? Absolutely not.
Do I trust my pastor and the "executive board" of my church that I attend regularly to make good decisions? Yes, but with a watchful eye.
Why is the answer to my first two questions a "no trust?" Because secular politics over the past 60 years has become such a dominant force in governance of my (mainline) denomination it looks more like a political party than a mission-driven House of God.
from a statistical analysis, the nuances of vocabulary probably have little impact. The question in the GSS has been the same for fifty years, the number of respondents is very large, Ryan's graphs go longitudinally, and vocabulary is pretty constant over that interval.
This is great, but not really surprising for me. Years ago I did my graduate thesis on Burning Man festival where I applied the "homeless minds" thesis to it, the idea being with a loss of trust in various institutions, the attendees were creating new forms of community and spirituality where they could find a home and trust. I do have questions about the general nature of the lack of trust in organized religion among religious people. Has any work been done to see whether their confidence remains in their tradition but has dipped in others in the culture, and if so, what traditions do they tend to be less trustful of? In other words, among religious people, how does their lack of trust breakdown on the specifics?
Hi, this is well written and I found the drop offs in hi-trust in religion by age cohort to be interesting, thanks for compiling the data. But the institutions you're referring to at the end aren’t the ones that built America; they’re relatively new constructs, mostly centralized and consolidated within the past fifty years. Many of the key institutions that did build America, such as genuinely decentralized and publicly accessible mass-member parties, robust state and city governments with real power, and a scientific ecosystem that was diffuse, experimental, and independent before World War II, among others, either no longer exist or have been transformed beyond recognition. What you’re observing isn’t just a generic loss of faith in “institutions” but a recognition that what replaced the old structures is fundamentally different in nature, worse in performance, and corrupt to its core. The centralized exclusionary membership parties that masquerade as political representation today were never part of the original design; the current form of "science" as a bureaucratic and industrialized apparatus really only took shape in the late 1970s, and state and city governments have been rendered largely ineffectual, unable to act as real counterweights to the national center. The growing distrust isn’t a rejection of institutions in general, it’s a rejection of the new centralized order, which has proven itself corrupt, unaccountable, and incapable of producing the broad-based prosperity and participatory governance that once existed. The real tragedy is that most people don’t realize just how much was lost in the process.
Religion becoming less trusted than other institutions strikes me as support for Aaron Renn's Negative World thesis.
Though I can't help but notice that among evangelicals, trust seems to be flat-to-positive since 1990 or so. The "Great Deal" line is flattish while the "Some" line has increased mostly at the expense of "Hardly Any".
There is Congress, which we despise, and there is my Congressman who we re-elect. There are greedy doctors, and there is my doctor who looks out for me. There are shady journalists and there is Fox or MSNBC which maintains my echo chamber. I suspect that for people affiliated with a religion, they rank their higher. For defectors for cause, whether Nones or DeChurched, the harm they experienced is generalized to all religions.
One thing that Ryan might be able to do from the GSS, though a bit labor intensive, would be to reconstruct the graphs not by their religion but by how often the people attend worship. People who go each week would be more satisfied than people who hardly ever go. There is belonging, which requires little trust, believing where faithful and cynics mingle, and behavior where what you really think is consistently expressed.
Yes, I think this is valid.
I'll be honest that when I hear the phrase "organized religion", my first instinct isn't to think of my own church -- a midsized community nondenominational church -- towards which my feelings are positive, but instead I think of the Mainlines in which I grew up (towards which my feelings are generally negative) and Roman Catholicism (towards which my feelings are mixed and complicated). I wonder to what degree this is generational.
And as for attendance, I think the percentage of non-attenders has increased within each of these groups, which is surely putting downward pressure on the within-group numbers.
Religions aren't entitled to respect or trust. People have figured out that religions are no different than anything else, where respect and trust must be earned, not simply demanded. And religons simply haven't earned it.
The GSS data reflecting long-term loss of confidence (or trust) in religion generally tracks the 50-year decline of the Episcopal Church and several other mainlines, a continuous decline so severe, that statistically, they will cease being functioning national denominations in a couple of decades or so. I've found no data that sheds bright light on why this decline is taking place, while the nondenominationals grow like weeds.
There's a truckload of opinion and speculation about it, but no reliable data. Hopefully, Ryan can find some reliable data that establishes specific causes of such a calamity in the making.
Just the thought of losing the mainlines is dreadful for the future of our country. There are bound to be specific reasons for the problem, but it can't be fixed until the cause is known in clear and uncertain terms
I think there are a lot of reasons for the decline of the mainlines, but the biggest one that's generally underdiscussed is that IIRC the 1970s were roughly when marrying outside your denomination started gaining more social acceptance -- and mainline churches were more often than not the losers when newly-married couples sat down and said "so what church do we go to, anyway?" I think that's explained at least a bit by both evangelicals and non-Protestant religions (Catholics + non-Christian faiths) having considerably more cultural investment in their religion (if not attachment to the actual religion in the case of Catholics.)
My grandparents were Methodists and all three of their daughters were. Of their five grandchildren, though, I'm the only one who still is even though all of us were raised in the church -- three cousins drifted off into nondenominational-land and my brother is UU.
An interesting point, Thomas, that I had not thought about. My personal experience, however, was the opposite. I left the Baptist Church where my grandfather was a pastor and joined my wife's Episcopal Church to raise my children with a consistent biblical teaching and faith in God. That was more than 60 years ago and I've stuck with it. But it's been a tough slog. I like my local Episcopal church, but the national leadership has sorely tried my patience, especially the last two decades with its determination to force "normalization" of LGBTQ persons upon the lay congregations. Gay ordinations of priests and bishops, promotion of them to positions of leadership through DEI, Social Justice, etc. Plus pushing a whole laundry-list of progressive cultural/political issues that most people do not support as indicated by the recent election. The result of this activism has been skism, division, defection and loss of half the church's national membership since the start of this century. The decline appears to be irreversible. Unfortunately, other mainline denominations, including your Methodists, have followed a similar course. In my view, the problem lies with weak and incompetent leadership accross the board. I see no other reasons for the failure of these valuable institutions in our country.
And yes, this last election confirmed the evil of Christianity. And that my own judgement about how much they hate peoples for how they are born and how much they lack any positive qualities. They are destroyers. They are dividers. They are mean evil people who will stop at nothing to hurt others and support hitler because they worship hitler. They always said it was me who did for being autistic. But they clearly are the ones who are hitler. I never promoted killing your parents or having the government kill you. But Christians have done that to me. Because they reject the golden rule. They reject society. They reject equality. They reject love. They even reject providing brail to the blind because they only have hate in their hearts. And you have proven you believe in the religion of hate.
When I was a child I did not understand how I could be so hated for just being myself. Its incomprehensible that people reject all that was being american and a good citizen like not wishing death on people for how they were born. But they have been doing it a long time and they violate everything I know about being a good loving human because they are heartless mass murderers and they raise heartless mass murderers. And people should be judged for their actions that they do with such intent. They know it will kill people.
You are against people jesus said you should love too. And I know based on how you reject accessibility (because that’s apart of DEI) and you reject women and think we are lesser and should be discriminated against . And you reject our health. And you reject my love because you are a horrible hater who hates American values of liberty and justice for all and you want that to be reserved for only your family and you want them to get promotions and opportunities they do not deserve. Trump put people in charge who arent just not qualified, but are anti qualified. They are against education for the disabled like me. But also just against education. They are against life itself. They don’t love their neighbors. They only hate. And I don’t understand why.
All I ever did was write poetry, read at the library, make music, and love. I do not have any institutional power.
Im on disability and im watching service go away. The only therapist that was ever good to me was Jewish and not religious. Its not a belief in god that teaches hatred. My friends are Jewish or atheist. One is a Lutheran who doesn’t go to church cause its mean.
I volunteer. I pick up trash around the homeless shelter. I married my first kiss. And never been with others willingly… some people thought they could “fix” my interest in a highly feminine person. And you can’t because I know what love is. Someone who cares for me no matter what. And loves me more than your god ever ever could.
I love film. I think its america’s greatest love and achievement to make so many. And the conservative hates what I love most because it includes everyone and everything in topic. And it isn’t so narrow as them.
Autistics you know, we have a strong sense of justice. A I feel a strong sense of justice. And a strong sense for a desire for autonomy. And I know when Im being hated by the majority of people. And you are right. And I have always known it because people are bent on hating. I was raised to care for the elderly, people more disabled than me, Im the oldest of 10 or 13 kids. Depending on how you count. And I had that traditional oldest sister role. And the fact is? I was never truly going to match your ideals…. Because I was going to fall in love. And dedicate myself self to it. I loved animals, Brazil, Japan, and fashion. I loved the movies. I loved vampires. I loved my pet rats. Little smart misunderstood creatures so packed with loving everyone in such a small short life. Eats anything we do. Doesn’t usually form group hates unless its sick.
Most people don’t support my equality. Most people dont support my liberty. Most people are not american in america in my view. These were core values I took from the pledge and the constitution. And they want the opposite of Americas promise because they hate me. And they hate my partner. And they want us gone forever because they hate love. And they hate everything I love. They hate everything I care about. And they always have. And they want to take what little I did get, like a segregated abusive education and just say no education at all as if it was education that taught me to feel and bleed like a human and they are so jealous of my sensitivity. They can’t have my sensitivity because they are sociopaths.
I learned to read at the library. I learned to love at the library. The library is liberty and I know the conservative wants to take it away from me because their religion cannot stand different and the library allows people who are different to learn to read and learn. And school doesn’t for us. Which is why they wanted me stuck. And well barring the classroom where I eventually found my place in Video Production when allowed to take mainstream classes at last, the library is how I maintained the ability that attempted to be stolen from me. I couldn’t make up for the math deficiency and neither could my partner… but we could take to reading. And my desire to make the world a better place and more equal place with more equal opportunities id hated. It was just so unfair to be locked in a dark closet and taught nothing day after day. It wasn’t school that taught me love that you hate. My faith in the pledge of allegiance is the core. My knowing how to read the 1st 8th 9th (considered dead weight but I see unexplored value in it as an autistic female deprived of the education I wanted) and 14th amendment is the other.
I feel it fully and to my core what my ideal america is. And it isn’t one that thinks im worthless to hire anywhere or worthless to educate making it hard to get the hiring. Im intelligent, it was unfair. Im working hard to make up what I can. Im doing my best….
But the majority of america is in my way. And in the way of the america we that should be. They don’t think we can share in the light, equality would create. And I just don’t understand. I can’t. It goes against everything.
I don’t trust religion because they are against me and my very existence as both autistic and gay and married to someone trans and gay.
They promote inequality and discrimination against persons. And they promote disgusting beliefs that causes terrible harm on anyone they are around and I don’t think they should be around children because they are abusive and mean and they teach their children to be racist, sexist, homophobic, and bigoted and judgmental to the disabled. And they are just all around bad people who have actively chosen hate. And they dont know what love is, they are sociopathic and they lack any positive contribution. They are the reason everything in america is bad and is made worse. They destroyed any hope or joy in an america that lives up to its promise of liberty and justice for all. And for that? I hate them for what they have done.
They could choose love at any time but they wont. Because they only know and teach hate. I only hate peoples who have chosen to willfully hate me and teach and pass on that hatred. At any point they can change and they wont.
They outright say they want to kill our parents in my neighborhood and want the government to kill us. They are bad people.
I think it depends on how you define and apply the word "trust." Do I trust the leadership of my church to make good decisions in the best interests of the majority of the members? Certainly not.
Do I trust the leadership to make decisions that I agree with and support? Absolutely not.
Do I trust my pastor and the "executive board" of my church that I attend regularly to make good decisions? Yes, but with a watchful eye.
Why is the answer to my first two questions a "no trust?" Because secular politics over the past 60 years has become such a dominant force in governance of my (mainline) denomination it looks more like a political party than a mission-driven House of God.
from a statistical analysis, the nuances of vocabulary probably have little impact. The question in the GSS has been the same for fifty years, the number of respondents is very large, Ryan's graphs go longitudinally, and vocabulary is pretty constant over that interval.
This is great, but not really surprising for me. Years ago I did my graduate thesis on Burning Man festival where I applied the "homeless minds" thesis to it, the idea being with a loss of trust in various institutions, the attendees were creating new forms of community and spirituality where they could find a home and trust. I do have questions about the general nature of the lack of trust in organized religion among religious people. Has any work been done to see whether their confidence remains in their tradition but has dipped in others in the culture, and if so, what traditions do they tend to be less trustful of? In other words, among religious people, how does their lack of trust breakdown on the specifics?