"Here’s my bias - I think about nearly every social and political phenomenon through the lens of religion. I don’t know how to not do that."
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Me, too, Ryan, and that's why I spend my limited resources on the graphs you present. I try to share with my religious friends on both sides of the aisle (and I've used your free gift for a month for a couple of them_
Colloquially, I have had two responses:
1. From white conservative Christians whom I tell that the Caucasian race is falling: "God will provide--He will either encourage white reproduction or convert minorities to true faith."
2. From liberal Christians whom I tell that the biggest hope of progressives is non-religious voters: "It's our job to convert people to the love of God. The nones are already on the road if they didn't vote for Trump.'
As you can see, religion puts cataracts over the eyes of Christians with regard to statistics. That's very disturbing but enthralling at the same time.
Disclosure. I worked in statistics in the insurance industry and belong to a small, very progressive denomination, MCC.
A couple of things - both of which I think I've probably said here before.
Firstly, I think you've said that Americans are increasingly swayed primarily by their allegiance to their chosen political group rather than their religion. Conservatives are more likely to go to church more often because that's what Republicans do rather than people become Republican because they are Christian. The flip side of that is the potential impact of left leaning politics on young people's religious attendance. Because they identify first as Democrats, and religious attendance isn't seen as something Democrats do, that means they'll be in church less. People tend to have more liberal views in their youth and become more conservative as they get older. However, people who don't attend religious services when young don't tend to start going later in life. For the GoP this could be a big problem if young people don't go to church and their party is seen as being closely tied to white evangelicalism.
Secondly, if the GoP is tied to white evangelicalism and that group is getting smaller, I fear even more self radicalization as leaders start to blame each other for falling numbers in both votes and pews. I expect to hear a lot more people being accused of not being "true Republicans" or "true Christians" as this happens and unfortunately a lot more open racism, xenophobia and antisemitism as people lash out trying to find some out-group to blame.
I can understand why you would interpret this data as indicating a God-gap between the Republican and Democratic parties *that seems to indicate a difference in changes of belief,* but I think that the most important number in this data is the 7 point drop in Republicans who attend church more than once a week from 2008 to 2024.
According to your data, in both parties the number of church goers (monthly attenders to more than weekly) has shrunk by about 11-12% of the party. And the greatest loss in the Republican party is in the number of "true believers" who show up more than once a week.
It seems accurate to say that the Christian framework continues to be more useful in Republican party politics than in the Democratic party, but that belief and practice on both sides of the aisle are uniformly steering away from beliefs and practices that could be easily identified as Christian. Even if those changes have plateaued, as you mention frequently, it's going to take more time for Republican party politics to move from Christian-centric speech simply because they're incentivized to cater to audiences that identify as Christian than in the Democratic party which has built a different type of coalition.
I find it surprising that Jews are an increasing share of both coalitions. I believe the overall Jewish share of the US population has been decreasing over time, from 3.5% to 2% in the last 75 years. This implies that the rate of Jewish participation in politics has significantly increased from 2008 to 2024. That seems odd. Small sample size?
Also, the mormon share of the coalitions has been dropping, going from 4% to 2% of the GOP and staying at 1% for the Dems. That prompted me to check the US population numbers, and I was surprised to see that they have dropped from about 1.8% to 1.2% in the last 30 years. I guess the huge LDS growth in recent years is outside the US.
One of the things this makes me think about is how political the world has become yet the presidential elections seem to be decided by people not paying attention and voter turnout. That said, the other larger question I've been pondering is what is the purpose of religion in 2025 and beyond. I can't help but wonder if the people tield to religion still are hoping religion return to what was (whatever "was" means) and not exploring what religion could be now. I think in general the Republican evangelicals resonate with "Make America Great Again" because they want America to be a certain way, with a general glance backward with a hope of bringing that forward. I think that only happens in an authoritarian world, another reason for the appeal. Black and other peole of color churches do a good job of creating community that isn't based so much on political ideology, though even that seems to be slipping, as younger people of color aren't staying in church like previous generations (as Jean Twenge has shared in her work. Now I think the community part of church is either political or generational. If anyone focuses on the personal well, it's the megachurches. Religion seems to have evolved more from telling me, the individual, how to make sense of the world more toward this is how the world should make sense--my way.
As a new subscriber who has used this data in my own writing, I'll just comment that from my perspective, noting that white Christians have voted three times overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, I have the following question related to your subtitle "The GOP's Faithful..." - FAITHFUL TO WHAT? The answer in this statistical context is, of course, the measurable "BEHAVIOR" of faithful church attendance. Some of us who might be considered by your subtitle "The Dem's Doubters" have simply applied a different, more subjective measure to the term "BEHAVIOR" and see no connection between that behavior over the past 10 years and the more spiritual meaning of "faithful."
"Here’s my bias - I think about nearly every social and political phenomenon through the lens of religion. I don’t know how to not do that."
-------------------
Me, too, Ryan, and that's why I spend my limited resources on the graphs you present. I try to share with my religious friends on both sides of the aisle (and I've used your free gift for a month for a couple of them_
Colloquially, I have had two responses:
1. From white conservative Christians whom I tell that the Caucasian race is falling: "God will provide--He will either encourage white reproduction or convert minorities to true faith."
2. From liberal Christians whom I tell that the biggest hope of progressives is non-religious voters: "It's our job to convert people to the love of God. The nones are already on the road if they didn't vote for Trump.'
As you can see, religion puts cataracts over the eyes of Christians with regard to statistics. That's very disturbing but enthralling at the same time.
Disclosure. I worked in statistics in the insurance industry and belong to a small, very progressive denomination, MCC.
Is there a good way to track the size of the God Gap over time? I’m curious about comparing the current breakdown to 2004
Here's white evangelicals voting behavior back to the 1940s: https://www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/a-sixty-year-history-of-white-evangelicals
A couple of things - both of which I think I've probably said here before.
Firstly, I think you've said that Americans are increasingly swayed primarily by their allegiance to their chosen political group rather than their religion. Conservatives are more likely to go to church more often because that's what Republicans do rather than people become Republican because they are Christian. The flip side of that is the potential impact of left leaning politics on young people's religious attendance. Because they identify first as Democrats, and religious attendance isn't seen as something Democrats do, that means they'll be in church less. People tend to have more liberal views in their youth and become more conservative as they get older. However, people who don't attend religious services when young don't tend to start going later in life. For the GoP this could be a big problem if young people don't go to church and their party is seen as being closely tied to white evangelicalism.
Secondly, if the GoP is tied to white evangelicalism and that group is getting smaller, I fear even more self radicalization as leaders start to blame each other for falling numbers in both votes and pews. I expect to hear a lot more people being accused of not being "true Republicans" or "true Christians" as this happens and unfortunately a lot more open racism, xenophobia and antisemitism as people lash out trying to find some out-group to blame.
I can understand why you would interpret this data as indicating a God-gap between the Republican and Democratic parties *that seems to indicate a difference in changes of belief,* but I think that the most important number in this data is the 7 point drop in Republicans who attend church more than once a week from 2008 to 2024.
According to your data, in both parties the number of church goers (monthly attenders to more than weekly) has shrunk by about 11-12% of the party. And the greatest loss in the Republican party is in the number of "true believers" who show up more than once a week.
It seems accurate to say that the Christian framework continues to be more useful in Republican party politics than in the Democratic party, but that belief and practice on both sides of the aisle are uniformly steering away from beliefs and practices that could be easily identified as Christian. Even if those changes have plateaued, as you mention frequently, it's going to take more time for Republican party politics to move from Christian-centric speech simply because they're incentivized to cater to audiences that identify as Christian than in the Democratic party which has built a different type of coalition.
I find it surprising that Jews are an increasing share of both coalitions. I believe the overall Jewish share of the US population has been decreasing over time, from 3.5% to 2% in the last 75 years. This implies that the rate of Jewish participation in politics has significantly increased from 2008 to 2024. That seems odd. Small sample size?
Also, the mormon share of the coalitions has been dropping, going from 4% to 2% of the GOP and staying at 1% for the Dems. That prompted me to check the US population numbers, and I was surprised to see that they have dropped from about 1.8% to 1.2% in the last 30 years. I guess the huge LDS growth in recent years is outside the US.
One of the things this makes me think about is how political the world has become yet the presidential elections seem to be decided by people not paying attention and voter turnout. That said, the other larger question I've been pondering is what is the purpose of religion in 2025 and beyond. I can't help but wonder if the people tield to religion still are hoping religion return to what was (whatever "was" means) and not exploring what religion could be now. I think in general the Republican evangelicals resonate with "Make America Great Again" because they want America to be a certain way, with a general glance backward with a hope of bringing that forward. I think that only happens in an authoritarian world, another reason for the appeal. Black and other peole of color churches do a good job of creating community that isn't based so much on political ideology, though even that seems to be slipping, as younger people of color aren't staying in church like previous generations (as Jean Twenge has shared in her work. Now I think the community part of church is either political or generational. If anyone focuses on the personal well, it's the megachurches. Religion seems to have evolved more from telling me, the individual, how to make sense of the world more toward this is how the world should make sense--my way.
As a new subscriber who has used this data in my own writing, I'll just comment that from my perspective, noting that white Christians have voted three times overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, I have the following question related to your subtitle "The GOP's Faithful..." - FAITHFUL TO WHAT? The answer in this statistical context is, of course, the measurable "BEHAVIOR" of faithful church attendance. Some of us who might be considered by your subtitle "The Dem's Doubters" have simply applied a different, more subjective measure to the term "BEHAVIOR" and see no connection between that behavior over the past 10 years and the more spiritual meaning of "faithful."