Ryan, great analysis I was happy to see the results. I know no one wants to admit they are a one policy voter but I think deep down everyone has one policy that is the most impactful. We vote with feelings far too often.
Love the graphs, statistics - question - I attend a mainline evangelical Baptist Church in Birmingham Al - non typical SBC, 7500 members - growing . I asked a longtime member who previously coordinated local volunteer mission/service efforts to immigrants, GED, underprivileged..poor, Helping other small churches. I asked him recently if he thought the participation in those programs had increased, decreased or stayed the same. He said he no longer had the numbers but he was sure it has decreased. Why has it decreased? Trump. Oddly, I do think it is not only Trump, but with the new pastor 8 years ago there is more emphasis on saving souls than caring for the poor and needy. Should a pastors performance also be evaluated based on these programs? I'd really just like to have a phone conversation. I'm a retired manufacturing owner and also retired forensic CPA. Thank you for all you do. I'm fascinated by the graphs and statistics - in a long ago past life I worked for an international accounting firm/Deloitte. I hope you follow me question.
The one issue that has plagued the church is the role of the state. Years before the church historically provided all support for the poor, now the state does. Maybe it is just my bias but I feel much better helping kids in Africa many I have visited than helping some of the local families in my hometown. It may be my bias that many seem to take advantage of the churches generosity and since I see it up close it has made me a bit bitter. The social safety net is too ripe for fraud in US in my opinion.
"For them, anti-immigrant sentiment was a stronger predictor of voting for the GOP in 2024 than abortion. I’m going to let someone else try to figure out why that was the case."
As I understand it, "Despite being one of the most politically conservative religious groups in America, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is also one of the most pro-immigrant."
It would follow that Mormon voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump may be likely to have done so because of Trump's attitude toward immigration, specifically. So the Trump-voting Mormon pool may select especially strongly for Mormons with especially hostile attitudes toward immigration for their demographic.
Meanwhile, official LDS position on abortion is one of general, but not inflexible, disapproval – https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/official-statement/abortion – and seems to delegate enforcement locally to bishops' counsel, perhaps placing Mormons more in the mushy middle on this politically, despite moral disapproval of the practice.
Much clearer evidence is available from the fact that Christian Republicans repeatedly chose Trump out of large fields of primary candidates all of whom had much stronger anti-abortion credentials. They voted for him because his obvious cruelty and brutality promised the kind of enforcement we've seen from ICE, rather than tame legalism.
I’m not sure that is true. I live in Indiana and voted for Ted Cruz in2016 but the primaries in Indiana rarely matter as we are very late. this was the first time in my memory that the primary mattered in the national election . But when Ted Cruz mistakenly called the basketball “hoop” the basketball “ring” in Indiana he was doomed. It was like Dukakis in the tank. Most of the most aggressive Trump supporters are not evangelicals but when faced with a binary choice….
It makes sense too. If you believe abortion is murder, people would place that injustice higher than the injustice of inhospitality. It makes me wonder why more Catholic and Mormons don't go in that direction. There must be some people who don't see abortion as murder but are still somehow pro-life? Can someone explain that viewpoint to me?
My guess is that geography has a great deal to do with that regression analysis. The LDS folks primarily come from states in the west where the anti-immigrant sentiment is likely higher. Meanwhile, back east in the states with higher concentrations of the other traditions, the pro-life and pro-choice folks have been at each other's throats for a long time. Anyway... just a thought
What will be interesting to me at the halfway point of his presidency is if the war in Iran changes people's minds about abortion and Pathway. Does the emotional impact of one impacts their perception of the other.
I can grasp that the propaganda about abortion in now deeply imbedded in conservative religious life and make them more likely to overlook other policies they may not like but war? That's a whole different fly in the pie.
I'm a Marine Corps Vietnam Veteran, and having experienced war that resonates with me more than any other religious topic.
Ryan, great analysis I was happy to see the results. I know no one wants to admit they are a one policy voter but I think deep down everyone has one policy that is the most impactful. We vote with feelings far too often.
Love the graphs, statistics - question - I attend a mainline evangelical Baptist Church in Birmingham Al - non typical SBC, 7500 members - growing . I asked a longtime member who previously coordinated local volunteer mission/service efforts to immigrants, GED, underprivileged..poor, Helping other small churches. I asked him recently if he thought the participation in those programs had increased, decreased or stayed the same. He said he no longer had the numbers but he was sure it has decreased. Why has it decreased? Trump. Oddly, I do think it is not only Trump, but with the new pastor 8 years ago there is more emphasis on saving souls than caring for the poor and needy. Should a pastors performance also be evaluated based on these programs? I'd really just like to have a phone conversation. I'm a retired manufacturing owner and also retired forensic CPA. Thank you for all you do. I'm fascinated by the graphs and statistics - in a long ago past life I worked for an international accounting firm/Deloitte. I hope you follow me question.
The one issue that has plagued the church is the role of the state. Years before the church historically provided all support for the poor, now the state does. Maybe it is just my bias but I feel much better helping kids in Africa many I have visited than helping some of the local families in my hometown. It may be my bias that many seem to take advantage of the churches generosity and since I see it up close it has made me a bit bitter. The social safety net is too ripe for fraud in US in my opinion.
"For them, anti-immigrant sentiment was a stronger predictor of voting for the GOP in 2024 than abortion. I’m going to let someone else try to figure out why that was the case."
As I understand it, "Despite being one of the most politically conservative religious groups in America, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is also one of the most pro-immigrant."
https://religioninpublic.blog/2019/03/28/mission-trips-abroad-linked-to-favorable-view-of-immigrants-for-latter-day-saints-especially-among-men/
It would follow that Mormon voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump may be likely to have done so because of Trump's attitude toward immigration, specifically. So the Trump-voting Mormon pool may select especially strongly for Mormons with especially hostile attitudes toward immigration for their demographic.
Meanwhile, official LDS position on abortion is one of general, but not inflexible, disapproval – https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/official-statement/abortion – and seems to delegate enforcement locally to bishops' counsel, perhaps placing Mormons more in the mushy middle on this politically, despite moral disapproval of the practice.
Much clearer evidence is available from the fact that Christian Republicans repeatedly chose Trump out of large fields of primary candidates all of whom had much stronger anti-abortion credentials. They voted for him because his obvious cruelty and brutality promised the kind of enforcement we've seen from ICE, rather than tame legalism.
I’m not sure that is true. I live in Indiana and voted for Ted Cruz in2016 but the primaries in Indiana rarely matter as we are very late. this was the first time in my memory that the primary mattered in the national election . But when Ted Cruz mistakenly called the basketball “hoop” the basketball “ring” in Indiana he was doomed. It was like Dukakis in the tank. Most of the most aggressive Trump supporters are not evangelicals but when faced with a binary choice….
Ryan, that final graph was the most helpful!
It makes sense too. If you believe abortion is murder, people would place that injustice higher than the injustice of inhospitality. It makes me wonder why more Catholic and Mormons don't go in that direction. There must be some people who don't see abortion as murder but are still somehow pro-life? Can someone explain that viewpoint to me?
My guess is that geography has a great deal to do with that regression analysis. The LDS folks primarily come from states in the west where the anti-immigrant sentiment is likely higher. Meanwhile, back east in the states with higher concentrations of the other traditions, the pro-life and pro-choice folks have been at each other's throats for a long time. Anyway... just a thought
What will be interesting to me at the halfway point of his presidency is if the war in Iran changes people's minds about abortion and Pathway. Does the emotional impact of one impacts their perception of the other.
I can grasp that the propaganda about abortion in now deeply imbedded in conservative religious life and make them more likely to overlook other policies they may not like but war? That's a whole different fly in the pie.
I'm a Marine Corps Vietnam Veteran, and having experienced war that resonates with me more than any other religious topic.