Sadly, this seems to align with my fear that these recent polls are more about political affiliation than real interest in Jesus' teachings. Thanks for another helpful analysis!
That's a symptom but not the root cause imho. Young men have diminished economic opportunity for a variety of reasons that have gotten us to this point, and this lack of opportunity means their odds and opportunity of partnering are greatly diminished. This diminishes their status and validation from other men. So, they lean on religion instead to attempt to achieve the desired outcome (wife + kids -> status -> validation). "You should marry me and lead a traditional value life because God says so."
I think this is unlikely to work considering Gen Z women are the most liberal cohort currently polled, ~52% of women 20-39 being childless, ~20M women owning their own homes, etc (ie women no longer needing marriage for economic security and men having to compete on character instead) but would explain why young men are adopting religion as a potential tool to achieve their goals when they have limited other options available to them. They do not believe in the teachings, the performance art is simply potentially useful to them.
I don't completely disagree with your assessment of the state of affairs for your men. However, I don't think it is humble at all to assume motivations for so many people you don't know. It is entirely possible that these young men hold these beliefs sincerely and are genuinely trying to improve the lives of the people around them. Characterizing their beliefs as a tool is uncharitable at best.
That's fair, people are complex and I paint with a broad brush in this context. I am happy to be proven wrong if a researcher or other practitioner is able and willing to perform a study on this specific cohort where there is a material delta between the spoken beliefs and the revealed beliefs and mental models observed through actions.
Broadly speaking, "patterns of actions over words". Show me the validity and authenticity of your beliefs by your actions, and I will believe you believe.
There seems to be a few people who are quick to disparage this surge in religious belief. Maybe instead of criticism of the seed, the field, the rocks and the tares, we should set about cultivating the coming harvest. Sure, some of these seeds will fall on rocky soil. Cultivate them anyway. Sure, some will fall among the tares, tenderly weed out the tares so that harvest will be great.
The second to last plot shows it is more than just belief without behavior. The actively religious males also saw a big jump in religious importance from 2022 to 2024, holding about steady in 2025. The jump in those not actively attending just lagged the jump for those that do. Religious importance seems to be on the up-swing for young men across the spectrum of behavior.
Is it really "religious importance" or have they found it hard to find a potential spouse playing video games in the figurative basement and are now trying church (as recommended in the funny movie Coming to America)? The problem is women are leaving as fast as the men are coming in(Ryan can correct if that's not exactly correct).
I found my wife at church. We encourage our children to go to church in part so they can find good spouses. Family formation certainly is one reason to think religion is important.
Historians and actuaries who look backwards tend to do better with inflection points than economists and statisticians who project forward. This looks like either an inflection point that will move forward or an isolated event.
Had this been a Jewish poll, it would be very understandable and in keeping with what we seem to currently experience. It's been a difficult couple of years for some of the kids on campus and early career, under attack on every screen and sometimes chased with bullhorns in person. A reasonable response would be affirming identity and belonging. This seems to be what is happening. In keeping with the Gallup and CES data, it is not happening in synagogue attendance which remains mostly shallow and older. We see it instead in a rise in participation with our network of agencies, particularly the advocacy ones, but also those directed to education, social engagement, or tikkun olam, which usually comes in the form of social justice initiatives that are not particulary Jewish in sponsorship.
This shift comes under an element of duress, which raises the question of whether young men, the group captured by Gallup, has its own form of travail. Professor G's widely selling book and podcasts seem to focus on young men who have underperformed and need better social and spiritual attachments. This makes the Gallup statistical blip plausible. What's missing is how those men, now lured to religion, or at least the concept of religion, create a more tangible measure of belonging or behavior in the same direction as this expression of belief.
Clueless here, absolutely. Although you did mention to idea of going to church as relationship, not religion. That would bring in the young men who need that space to nondenom traditions. I won't digress on that one. Women? They're likely those who have had enough of whatever they may be hearing and opting out for a self care day. Just sayin'
I'm confused by what scholars mean by religion and spirituality.
Here's one possibility that doesn't seem captured by these studies;
Lawrence is 17, and part of a family that has had no religious affiliation for many generations. He has never set foot inside a church, temple, mosque or any religious institution, and grew up thinking religion was an outdated set of dogmas, beliefs and superstitions which have no place in the modern world.
He hears someone quote Paul saying that God is He "In whom we live and move and have our being." He has no clear language for what has just happened to him, but in the moment, explains it as seeing, feeling God as everything and everyone (after some searching he might realize this was not pantheistic but, given his love of science, a kind of evolutionary panentheism). Not long after this happens he discovers Brother Lawrence's "Practice of the Presence of God," and considers Brother Lawrence to be a brother to him, one who rejects the rigid institution and practices of the church for the simple recognition of the all pervading Divine presence.
Being academically inclined, the first people he seeks out to explain what has happened to him are academics. He finds nobody in the religion departments among Christians, Jews or Muslims, but hears that in Asian religions this recognition of the all pervading presence (Sarvam vasudevam) is more acceptable. But he talks to professors of Buddhism, Hinduism, Taoism and other Asian traditions and finds they are as much caught up in intellectual disputes as those in the western theological departments, and in fact, they hold materialistic views and seem to have no interest in recognizing this Presence.
He tries the philosophy departments, but even among those who specialize in Indian philosophy, he finds the same materialistic views and intellectual orientation. He seeks out clergy but they too seem locked in ordinary mental and emotional views, with no interest in direct Knowledge or Presence.
He then starts to meet people who refer to themselves as SBNR, and though of course he realizes that whenever there is money involved, there is corruption, and he sees academics writing about SBNR as if this was all there was too it. But he begins meeting people from all over the world who speak of a massive shift occurring, and one of the rare academics he finds who seems to understand this - Robert Thurman - agrees and has written about this.
Will mainstream academics ever recognize this? Dr. Liz Bucar has just published a book, "Beyond Wellness," and has a substack "Religion Reimagined." She writes as if this deeper SBNR movement does not exist, as if the "reimagined" value of religion is hardly more than progressive ethics and stronger community, and as if the "spiritual" part of it is individualistic psychological growth.
B. Alan Wallace brought a truly Divinely aware, contemplative dimension to his teaching at UC Santa Barbara but left after 4 years to return to SBNR teaching.
How does one communicate to academics about this massive worldwide SBNR movement which seems invisible to them?
Sadly, this seems to align with my fear that these recent polls are more about political affiliation than real interest in Jesus' teachings. Thanks for another helpful analysis!
I can explain these numbers with two words...Charlie Kirk.
That's a symptom but not the root cause imho. Young men have diminished economic opportunity for a variety of reasons that have gotten us to this point, and this lack of opportunity means their odds and opportunity of partnering are greatly diminished. This diminishes their status and validation from other men. So, they lean on religion instead to attempt to achieve the desired outcome (wife + kids -> status -> validation). "You should marry me and lead a traditional value life because God says so."
I think this is unlikely to work considering Gen Z women are the most liberal cohort currently polled, ~52% of women 20-39 being childless, ~20M women owning their own homes, etc (ie women no longer needing marriage for economic security and men having to compete on character instead) but would explain why young men are adopting religion as a potential tool to achieve their goals when they have limited other options available to them. They do not believe in the teachings, the performance art is simply potentially useful to them.
I don't completely disagree with your assessment of the state of affairs for your men. However, I don't think it is humble at all to assume motivations for so many people you don't know. It is entirely possible that these young men hold these beliefs sincerely and are genuinely trying to improve the lives of the people around them. Characterizing their beliefs as a tool is uncharitable at best.
That's fair, people are complex and I paint with a broad brush in this context. I am happy to be proven wrong if a researcher or other practitioner is able and willing to perform a study on this specific cohort where there is a material delta between the spoken beliefs and the revealed beliefs and mental models observed through actions.
Broadly speaking, "patterns of actions over words". Show me the validity and authenticity of your beliefs by your actions, and I will believe you believe.
There seems to be a few people who are quick to disparage this surge in religious belief. Maybe instead of criticism of the seed, the field, the rocks and the tares, we should set about cultivating the coming harvest. Sure, some of these seeds will fall on rocky soil. Cultivate them anyway. Sure, some will fall among the tares, tenderly weed out the tares so that harvest will be great.
More people living out the gospel is a god thing.
Is there a surge in religious belief? Can you point me to data that makes that claim?
The second to last plot shows it is more than just belief without behavior. The actively religious males also saw a big jump in religious importance from 2022 to 2024, holding about steady in 2025. The jump in those not actively attending just lagged the jump for those that do. Religious importance seems to be on the up-swing for young men across the spectrum of behavior.
Embrace the coming revival, man!
Is it really "religious importance" or have they found it hard to find a potential spouse playing video games in the figurative basement and are now trying church (as recommended in the funny movie Coming to America)? The problem is women are leaving as fast as the men are coming in(Ryan can correct if that's not exactly correct).
I found my wife at church. We encourage our children to go to church in part so they can find good spouses. Family formation certainly is one reason to think religion is important.
Me too.
Historians and actuaries who look backwards tend to do better with inflection points than economists and statisticians who project forward. This looks like either an inflection point that will move forward or an isolated event.
Had this been a Jewish poll, it would be very understandable and in keeping with what we seem to currently experience. It's been a difficult couple of years for some of the kids on campus and early career, under attack on every screen and sometimes chased with bullhorns in person. A reasonable response would be affirming identity and belonging. This seems to be what is happening. In keeping with the Gallup and CES data, it is not happening in synagogue attendance which remains mostly shallow and older. We see it instead in a rise in participation with our network of agencies, particularly the advocacy ones, but also those directed to education, social engagement, or tikkun olam, which usually comes in the form of social justice initiatives that are not particulary Jewish in sponsorship.
This shift comes under an element of duress, which raises the question of whether young men, the group captured by Gallup, has its own form of travail. Professor G's widely selling book and podcasts seem to focus on young men who have underperformed and need better social and spiritual attachments. This makes the Gallup statistical blip plausible. What's missing is how those men, now lured to religion, or at least the concept of religion, create a more tangible measure of belonging or behavior in the same direction as this expression of belief.
Clueless here, absolutely. Although you did mention to idea of going to church as relationship, not religion. That would bring in the young men who need that space to nondenom traditions. I won't digress on that one. Women? They're likely those who have had enough of whatever they may be hearing and opting out for a self care day. Just sayin'
I'm confused by what scholars mean by religion and spirituality.
Here's one possibility that doesn't seem captured by these studies;
Lawrence is 17, and part of a family that has had no religious affiliation for many generations. He has never set foot inside a church, temple, mosque or any religious institution, and grew up thinking religion was an outdated set of dogmas, beliefs and superstitions which have no place in the modern world.
He hears someone quote Paul saying that God is He "In whom we live and move and have our being." He has no clear language for what has just happened to him, but in the moment, explains it as seeing, feeling God as everything and everyone (after some searching he might realize this was not pantheistic but, given his love of science, a kind of evolutionary panentheism). Not long after this happens he discovers Brother Lawrence's "Practice of the Presence of God," and considers Brother Lawrence to be a brother to him, one who rejects the rigid institution and practices of the church for the simple recognition of the all pervading Divine presence.
Being academically inclined, the first people he seeks out to explain what has happened to him are academics. He finds nobody in the religion departments among Christians, Jews or Muslims, but hears that in Asian religions this recognition of the all pervading presence (Sarvam vasudevam) is more acceptable. But he talks to professors of Buddhism, Hinduism, Taoism and other Asian traditions and finds they are as much caught up in intellectual disputes as those in the western theological departments, and in fact, they hold materialistic views and seem to have no interest in recognizing this Presence.
He tries the philosophy departments, but even among those who specialize in Indian philosophy, he finds the same materialistic views and intellectual orientation. He seeks out clergy but they too seem locked in ordinary mental and emotional views, with no interest in direct Knowledge or Presence.
He then starts to meet people who refer to themselves as SBNR, and though of course he realizes that whenever there is money involved, there is corruption, and he sees academics writing about SBNR as if this was all there was too it. But he begins meeting people from all over the world who speak of a massive shift occurring, and one of the rare academics he finds who seems to understand this - Robert Thurman - agrees and has written about this.
Will mainstream academics ever recognize this? Dr. Liz Bucar has just published a book, "Beyond Wellness," and has a substack "Religion Reimagined." She writes as if this deeper SBNR movement does not exist, as if the "reimagined" value of religion is hardly more than progressive ethics and stronger community, and as if the "spiritual" part of it is individualistic psychological growth.
B. Alan Wallace brought a truly Divinely aware, contemplative dimension to his teaching at UC Santa Barbara but left after 4 years to return to SBNR teaching.
How does one communicate to academics about this massive worldwide SBNR movement which seems invisible to them?